Battleground State Profile: New Mexico



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State Data:


2008 Primary Results:


Hillary Clinton: 49%

Barack Obama: 48%



John McCain: 86%

Ron Paul: 14%



2004 Election Results:


George W. Bush: 49.84%

John Kerry: 49.05%



2000 Election Results:


Al Gore: 47.91%

George W. Bush: 47.85%



Racial Breakdown:


White: 44.7%

Black: 1.9%

Hispanic: 42.1%

Other: 11.3%



Income:


Under 25k: 36.7%

25-50k: 31.4%

50-100k: 24.3%

Over 100k: 7.6%



Education:


Less than H.S.: 21.2%

H.S. or Higher: 78.9%

BA or Higher: 23.5%

Grad/Prof Deg: 9.8%



Who do you think will win New Mexico?



John McCain


Barack Obama




























New Mexico



Races don't get much closer than the last two presidential battles in New Mexico: President Bush took the state by just 6,000 votes in 2004, and he lost it by less than 600 in 2000. The state only offers five electoral votes, but it's one of three mountain west states (along with Colorado and Nevada) seen, as a group, as the possible difference-makers in November.

Each candidate has a built in advantage here. John McCain, from neighboring Arizona, is well known to the state's voters, and his military background plays well in the state. Barack Obama, meanwhile, has the support of the state's popular governor, Bill Richardson. Obama is also expected to benefit from the rash of local elections taking place in the state this year, as registed Democrats outnumber Republicans here by about 100,000.


The state only offers five electoral votes, but it's one of three mountain west states (along with Colorado and Nevada) seen, as a group, as the possible difference-makers in November.


The key, however, will be Hispanics, who make up almost half the state's population. The group tradidionally trends Democratc, but McCain's relative moderation on immigration makes him more palatable to Hispanics than his vanquished rivals ever hoped to be. And Obama, who narrowly lost the primary here to Hillary Clinton, struggled to win over Hispanic voters in the Democratic primary.

Ways To Win




Predict A Winner

Make picks for each state to build a path to electoral college victory.



Related New Mexico Campaign Stories



Poll Averages




Real Clear Politics averages recent polls from a wide number of media sources, including some not recognized or used by CBS News, and shows the average lead of the top candidate.