Starting Gate: How Bad Could It Be For GOP?
It’s something that has been cautiously whispered about for months, but now it’s out in the open. Could this be a “wave” election?
The last time is happened, of course, was in 1994 when Republicans rode a tidal wave of voter discontent and swept Democrats out of power in Congress, disposing of longtime Washington fixtures that never saw it coming. Candidates who wouldn’t have had a chance in more conventional elections, from states and districts they never should have had a chance in, winning a net gain of 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate.
Nobody is predicting quite that level of gains for Democrats this year – at least not yet. But if the economic meltdown has been the earthquake that has jolted the landscape, the tsunami that follows could be unpredictable.
The signs, from top to bottom, are hard to ignore. At the presidential level, Barack Obama has established a solid, if slight, lead in the national polls. More importantly, the battleground states at the moment are almost exclusively traditional Republican must-haves like Florida and Ohio in addition to states that have been traditional locks for the GOP, such as Indiana, Virginia and even North Carolina.
The national picture has suddenly made the outlook much darker for Republicans down the ballot as well. In the Senate races, Democrats entered this cycle with a big advantage in terms of open seats, recruitments and safe seats. It appeared that even in the best of circumstances, it was unlikely that they would pick up the nine seats needed to achieve a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority. But in recent weeks polling has shown some surprisingly close races in previous safe states like Kentucky and North Carolina. In 1994, candidates were swept away that way, casualties of the bigger trends.
In the House, Republicans came into the cycle with similar disadvantages. Over two dozen retirements, recruiting difficulties and financial woes had the party hoping to simply stem the number of lost seats to single digits. With the Democrats now defending very few of their seats and taking the fight to Republicans all over the map, those hopes appear to be dashed. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg yesterday revised his predictions upward, saying Democrats are now likely to win upwards of 20 seats in the House, maybe even 30 if current trends continue.
There are still over three weeks to go in the campaign and a lot can happen. Disgruntled voters may decide to punish the whole lot of them, lodging their frustrations against Democrats as well as Republicans. John McCain may succeed, whether in next week’s debate or afterwards, in his efforts to raise questions about Obama’s readiness and experience. Voters could decide that they don’t want one-party rule in Washington again. But time is growing short and there is little good news to calm nervous Republicans right now.
Around The Track
A new ad by the McCain campaign hits Obama for his association with Weather Underground member William Ayres.
A report by the Alaska state legislature on Governor Sarah Palin’s firing of a state official is expected to be released today.
The McCain campaign released its own report clearing Palin of any wrongdoing in the “troopergate” investigation.
New York Post gossip columnist Cindy Adams says Palin has been locked in to appear on “Saturday Night Live” October 25th.
The last time is happened, of course, was in 1994 when Republicans rode a tidal wave of voter discontent and swept Democrats out of power in Congress, disposing of longtime Washington fixtures that never saw it coming. Candidates who wouldn’t have had a chance in more conventional elections, from states and districts they never should have had a chance in, winning a net gain of 54 seats in the House and eight in the Senate.
Nobody is predicting quite that level of gains for Democrats this year – at least not yet. But if the economic meltdown has been the earthquake that has jolted the landscape, the tsunami that follows could be unpredictable.
The signs, from top to bottom, are hard to ignore. At the presidential level, Barack Obama has established a solid, if slight, lead in the national polls. More importantly, the battleground states at the moment are almost exclusively traditional Republican must-haves like Florida and Ohio in addition to states that have been traditional locks for the GOP, such as Indiana, Virginia and even North Carolina.
The national picture has suddenly made the outlook much darker for Republicans down the ballot as well. In the Senate races, Democrats entered this cycle with a big advantage in terms of open seats, recruitments and safe seats. It appeared that even in the best of circumstances, it was unlikely that they would pick up the nine seats needed to achieve a filibuster-proof, 60-seat majority. But in recent weeks polling has shown some surprisingly close races in previous safe states like Kentucky and North Carolina. In 1994, candidates were swept away that way, casualties of the bigger trends.
In the House, Republicans came into the cycle with similar disadvantages. Over two dozen retirements, recruiting difficulties and financial woes had the party hoping to simply stem the number of lost seats to single digits. With the Democrats now defending very few of their seats and taking the fight to Republicans all over the map, those hopes appear to be dashed. Political analyst Stuart Rothenberg yesterday revised his predictions upward, saying Democrats are now likely to win upwards of 20 seats in the House, maybe even 30 if current trends continue.
There are still over three weeks to go in the campaign and a lot can happen. Disgruntled voters may decide to punish the whole lot of them, lodging their frustrations against Democrats as well as Republicans. John McCain may succeed, whether in next week’s debate or afterwards, in his efforts to raise questions about Obama’s readiness and experience. Voters could decide that they don’t want one-party rule in Washington again. But time is growing short and there is little good news to calm nervous Republicans right now.
Around The Track
Best-selling author Mitch Albom on his first nonfiction work since "Tuesdays with Morrie."
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See all 197 Comments....she is for the drilling for oil on North Slope...not for energy resources FOR THE LOWER 48 as it has already been acknowledged that there isn''t that much oil there...she AND HER HUSBAND has a BIG FINANCIAL stake and is vested in the OIL CORPORATIONS UP THERE CHECK IT OUT FOR YOURSELF INSTEAD OF BEING UNINFORMED....I THINK YOU WILL SUPRISE YOURSELF.
SHE IS EVEN WILLING TO KILL OFF THE POLAR BEAR FOR THESE OIL REVENUES...LOOK IT UP YOURSELF.. THE ALASKAN GOVERNMENT UNDER HER LEADERSHIP, ARE CURRENTLY SUING THE UNTIED STATES DEPARTMENT OF INTERIOR FOR PLACING THE POLAR BEAR IN MAY 2008 ON THE ENDANGERED SPECIES LIST...
SHE IS ANTI-CHOICE ENVEN IN CASES OF RAPE AND INCEST..THEREFORE ENSLAVING YOUNG WOMEN WHO HAVE BEEN VICTIMS OF THESE CRIMES TO BEAR THE OFFSPRING AND FORCE TO SUPPORT THEM WHEN THEY WERE CREATED AS A RESULT OF THE A HORRENDOUS CRIME AGAINST THEIR PERSON...
NOW A BIPARSIAN COMMITTEE HAVE FOUND THAT SHE HAS ABUSED HER POWERS IN PRESSURING THAT A CERTAIN OFFICIAL TO FIRE A STATE EMPLOYEE AND SHE IS STATING THAT THIS REPORT HAS FREE HER OF ANY WRONG DOING?
OH PLEASE, SHE HAS VIOLATED THE ETHICS LAWS..and has STATED IN THE DEBATE...GO AHEAD AND LOOK IT UP...THAT SHE WOULD GO AGAINST WHAT IS WRITTEN IN THE U.S. CONSTITUION AND WOULD EXPAND VP POWERS
Posted by robert2237 at 06:44 PM
More correctly she will not be able to win the Republican primary in Alaska after she is removed from office for her illegal conduct in troopergate.
Wow, stay tuned Sarah--you are in the big leagues now--and you can''''''''t hide behind moose dressing or a misunderstanding--no respect for the law, no respect for the Constitution...when this is over, you may wish YOU were Bill Ayers.
http://www.rr.com/view/content
/story.cfm?storyId=5984716&view=HOME&n
ew
sgroup=9000&sSect=HOM_1
Posted by joule3 at 05:56 PM
Congress is required to pass legislation however there are no rules requiring Congress to draft the legislation. You may have a point that the failure to require them to draft legislation may be part of the problem.
Posted by rational_1
As CDFoxtrot4 points out, it was the Republican majority for 12 years, plus a Republican President for 8 years that pressed deregulation and maintained a woeful lack of oversight that allowed those complex financial "devices" (i.e. *** mortgages repackaged) to be created, leaving the creditors holding the bag while the leaders of the investment banks got rich, got golden parachutes - and left us paying for it. Which is of course, very similar in a lot of respects to the Savings and Loan collapse and taxpayer bailout back in the day, thanks to deregulations under another Bush administration, hmm.
Don''t get me wrong, this "Socialist" is an investor, I actually follow this *** because I care what happens when OUR country (and my American stocks) gets knocked around like this, not because I''m carrying some frickin'' dying flame in a long-gone McCarthy era mindset. Wake up, this is the 21st century, there are serious problems we''re facing.
And getting back to the point at hand, thank our lucky stars that by every metric available, Barack Obama is the clear choice of the American people because they too get that we need some solutions, not more outdated name-slinging.
We''ll see you at the polls November 4 - if unlike me you haven''t already voted.
He endorsed John McCain in the presidential primary, but now former Republican Gov. William Milliken is expressing doubts about his party''s nominee.
"He is not the McCain I endorsed," said Milliken, reached at his Traverse City home Thursday. "He keeps saying, ''Who is Barack Obama?'' I would ask the question, ''Who is John McCain?'' because his campaign has become rather disappointing to me.
"I''m disappointed in the tenor and the personal attacks on the part of the McCain campaign, when he ought to be talking about the issues."
Posted by rational_1
You really should look up the meaning of the word "socialist". You obviously don''t understand it. As for the economy, your pals in the Republican party did a terrific job deregulating everything they could, and p1ss1ing and ********* all over government so they could push through their radical right-wing agenda. Look at the mess we''re in now, as a result. Be grateful there''s an election coming so we can get more intelligent people into power and hopefully make things better.
They have forgot what conservative means and have become radical.
They lost their nerve and refused to stand up for the principles that defined the Party as the President jammed his agenda thru both the House and Senate.
The failure to provide oversight, checks and balance, is largely responsible for the mess we are in from the war to the economy. They failed to reverse practices that they said they stood for and will now be held accountable in November.
Hopefully after the major defeat in November, they will regroup, reorganize and once again be able to help govern.
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So the mess stemming from the past 8 years is McCain''s doing. Knew Obama was the best choice!
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See all 197 Comments