Big Primaries, Big Changes: Iowa, New Hampshire And Voter Registration
This analysis was written by Anthony Salvanto, CBS News' manager of surveys
Iowa and New Hampshire did more than kick off this year's presidential races. Their contests this winter drew thousands of first-time voters, and spurred thousands more to switch party registration, in numbers that heavily favored the Democrats.
In a presidential election that may be close, they could play pivotal roles for the second time this year. Could new voters put these states - each of which was a toss-up in '04 - squarely into the blue column now?
Here's a look at how the changes have shaken up their electorates – and could make a difference this November. The challenge for Obama and the Democrats is whether they can capitalize on having won the "interest primary" by drawing and registering more of their voters last winter.
Iowa
Just one year prior to the Iowa caucuses, in January of 2007, the state had a close balance of 609,633 registered active Democrats and 590,107 Republicans statewide, a difference of merely 19,000 of the state's two million active voters. Perhaps it's not surprising that Iowa's presidential races were decided by just one point in 2004 and 2000.
But then came the 2008 caucuses. In order to participate, independents (unaffiliated) voters first needed to choose and formally register with one of the parties. The Democrats were big beneficiaries of their choices: Iowa's Secretary of State reports that the Democrats "gained nearly 60,000" registrants which the office attributes to the caucuses, while the Iowa Republican Party got far fewer, about 7,600.
That helped the registration gap between the parties grow dramatically in the Democrats' favor since early 2007. As of July 1st, there are now 673,833 registered active Democrats, and 583,614 Republicans, a Democratic difference now of about 90,000 – and a more than four-fold increase in the size that gap was just a year and a half ago.
With the party registrations shifted, Democrats might not need to win over as many – or even a majority – of independents in order to carry the state. But their room for error on that isn't large: registered independents, still 675,860 strong, slightly outnumber members of either party in Iowa today, and can still be decisive for McCain if he takes the bulk of them.
Beyond the already-registered voters who switched partisan tags, there were brand-new voters too. The Secretary of State reports Iowa "gained over 22,000 new registrations overall" because of the caucuses. To put that in context, that's twice as many first-time voters entering the electorate in Iowa as was the margin in its 2004 Presidential race.
Barack Obama's support from first-time caucus-goers (which included these voters) was indeed a key to his caucus win. Can he keep them in November? One sign he has a chance is that so many stated an allegiance to his party beyond their formal registration: a CBS News Entrance Poll of Democratic caucus-goers showed only a quarter of first-time attendees considered themselves independents, despite their registration.
New Hampshire
Like Iowa, the Granite State has been very purple on the red-blue map, and swung by one-point margins – just a few thousand votes - in 2004 and 2000. And as in Iowa, in 2008 one-time Independents chose to go into the Democratic contest more than the Republican one.
As a result, the gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in the state has narrowed considerably since 2004. Republicans still have the registration edge, but by a much smaller margin.
In raw numbers, according to the Secretary of State, today there are 36,000 more registered Democrats in New Hampshire than the rolls showed in November 2004; and only about 2,000 additional Republicans.
Meanwhile the stats show movement away from the ranks of the unaffiliated (independents): there are now 29,000 fewer than in 2004.
Over 121,000 previously independent voters chose to officially register themselves as Democrats – at least for Primary day - in order to vote in the contest among Clinton, Obama, Edwards and the rest back in January. Fewer, around 75,000 independents, declared themselves Republicans and weighed in on the GOP side between McCain, Romney et al.
The Democrats might have had an even greater registration boon coming out of January, but for the even-stronger pull of New Hampshire's fierce independence streak. Unlike in Iowa, most New Hampshire independents who chose one of the parties in the primary (roughly 138,000 of the 196,000) left it just as quickly as they joined, re-registering themselves as independents again on the way out of the polling place!
The next key question, particularly for independents, is whether those who might be disappointed by the primary results (for instance, those backing Clinton or Romney) will stay with the party come November. Most of those who switched to the Democratic Party supported Obama, however, and the Republican Primary's independent voters favored McCain.
Both Obama and McCain were the winners among the independents who switched into their respective primaries – suggesting they may each have a chance to hold on a lot of those voters in January.
The 2008 primaries also grew the electorate, and that appears to have also been to the Democrats' advantage. 61,000-plus voters registered at the polls on Primary Day. To put that in context, it is six times the margin by which Kerry edged Bush here four years ago.
Exit polls showed 5% of voters in the Republican primary and 6% of the Democratic electorate (which was larger than the Republican) were first-time voters. As in Iowa, that's a numerical edge for the Democrats that could give an edge to Obama – if he can retain those voters come November.