Can Bush Bounce Back?

(CBS/AP)

And according to CBS News director of surveys, Kathleen Frankovic, that picture probably won't be changing any time soon:

Presidents can rebound. There can be a "rallying point." In his 1973 book Wars, Presidents and Public Opinion, John Mueller studied presidential approval ratings. Simply stated, he found three key factors. First is length of time in office; approval usually goes down the longer a president serves, as whatever he does alienates someone. Second is the economy, which can either help or hurt. And third is long-term war, especially American casualties, which reduces approval..

Mueller also identified what he called "rally points," which can bump up approval ratings, at least for a while. This president's biggest rally point occurred after the 9/11 terrorist attacks. His support also rose (less dramatically) at the start of the Iraq war in 2003. It declined (as Mueller predicted) as that war went on. Most rally points involve foreign threat or action – like George H.W. Bush and the 1991 Persian Gulf War, Ronald Reagan and the invasion of Grenada in 1983, and even Jimmy Carter and the seizure of American hostages in Iran in 1979. There are also "rally points" when the presidency, though certainly not the nation, has been in crisis. The best example of that was when Bill Clinton's lagging approval rating rose above 60 percent after reports of his entanglement with Monica Lewinsky surfaced in 1998.

Mueller also notes that sometimes opinions are too fixed to change.