Public Eye
February 21, 2006 3:20 PM

Temperature: Fair?

This Sunday, "60 Minutes" aired a piece on global warming. The piece, which featured correspondent Scott Pelley, largely took the existence of global warming as a given. But there are those who claim that global warming – and, specifically, the notion that humans are responsible for it – is a myth. I asked Pelley why the voices of the skeptics were not heard in the piece.

"There is virtually no disagreement in the scientific community any longer about global warming," he says. "The science that has been done in the last three to five years has been conclusive. We talked to the chairman of the National Academy of Sciences (NOTE: This word was incorrectly transcribed and has been corrected), Ralph Cicerone. Jim Hansen at NASA, who's considered the world's leading expert in climate change. The people in the story, who are well respected in the field. There's just no longer any credible evidence that suggests that, a, the earth is not warming or, b, that greenhouse gasses are not the cause. What you do see in the data again and again and again is this almost lockstep increase between the levels of CO2 and the rise of temperature in the atmosphere. And the climate models that predicted these things happening 15 years ago have proven to be accurate."

"It would be irresponsible of us to go find some scientist somewhere who is not thought of as being eminent in the field and put him on television with these other guys to cast doubt on what they're saying," he continues. "It would be difficult to find a scientist worth his salt in this subject who would suggest this wasn't happening. It would probably be someone whose grant has been funded by someone who finds reducing fossil fuel emissions detrimental to their own interests."

Pelley cites the Michael Crichton novel "State of Fear," which suggests the dangers of global warming are unproved and overstated, as driving the "popular myth" around the issue. Crichton reportedly met with President Bush last year after the president "avidly read" the novel, "fueling a common perception among environmental groups that Crichton's dismissal of global warming…has undermined efforts to pass legislation intended to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide," according to the International Herald Tribune.

But Bush has talked in his State Of The Union address about reducing greenhouse gasses, and the administration spends $5 billion per year researching climate science. The White House's official line is that Bush believes that it is necessary to confront global warming, though the president questions humanity's role in contributing to it.

The Reagan administration, Pelley points out, was initially dead set against acting to reduce chlorofluorocarbons, but as the evidence that they were damaging the environment became overwhelming, it came around. He believes the Bush administration might be reaching a similar "tipping point," thanks to the "remarkable unanimity" among scientists on the impact of global warming.

Still, skeptics remain.

"A favourite ploy by [Anthropogenic Global Warming] alarmists is to repeat ad infinitem that the science about AGW has been settled and that there is consensus among scientists that it is happening and that it will have cataclysmic consequences for our planet," writes Gerrit J. van der Lingen in the National Business Review. "People using these consensus arguments forget that scientific truth is not determined by consensus."
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global warming ,
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by journotlist February 21, 2006 5:14 PM PST
I hate to throw a wrench in your irrefutable and conclusive evidence, but if you can possibly manage the time, take a gander at NASA's list of solar events. http://www.spaceweather.com/solarflares/topflares.html An enterprising reporter might find that 6 of the top 11 most powerful solar flares (and thusly heat) have occurred in the last 5-6 years. You might also take your reporting back more than a few years and find that solar activity correllates perfectly with the whole range of varying temperatures that the Earth has gone through, including the Maunder Minimum (1645-1715) during the "Little Ice Age" that occurred from 1500 to 1850. http://www.biocab.org/Global_Warming.html To use your phrase, it would be difficult to find a scientist worth his salt who would suggest that the hyperactive sun isn't delivering more heat to the Earth right now than at any time in modern history. I'll leave it to 60 Minutes to explain how grandma's hairspray caused that.
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by jtdavies3 February 21, 2006 5:41 PM PST
I was going to comment that maybe astronomers should have been interviewed instead of climatologists. But journotlist explained it better.
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by keller95971 February 21, 2006 6:37 PM PST
60 Minutes Correspondent Scott Pelley states, "There is virtually no disagreement in the scientific community any longer about global warming." This is especially true when you don't even bother to make the effort to someone who does not agree.
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by sumyunguy February 21, 2006 7:03 PM PST
Good to see the know-nothing neo-Con brigade out in force, lambasting scienctific research they are incapable of comprehending. Even if journotlist were correct, and increased solar activity was to blame for sending more heat our direction, that doesn't change the fact that CO2 is what causes the atmosphere to RETAIN heat. Were there not an excess of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, the Earth would be radiating more heat into space. People with a small amount of scientific knowledge are easily fooled by those with corrupt agendas. CBS should be applauded for this act of responsible journalism. Presenting oil-funded fringe scientists' persepectives as equal to those of the respected scientific community is the domain of nitwits like Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh, and Fox News.
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by jrm1943 February 21, 2006 8:00 PM PST
You state that most "credible" climate scientists believe that there is some human influence on climate, such as "global warming". This is true. What is also true - and you never state - is that the climate has been changing widely for billions of years independent of human influence, and it will continue to do so. In the long run, it will be far more productive to determine how we can deal with climate change from whatever source rather than trying to demonize human civilization for its relatively minor contributions to the problem. Do a program on that, if you dare.
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by bettygun February 21, 2006 8:03 PM PST
thank you for your 60 minutes segment on global warming. we all have a responsibility to change our behavior to preserve the planet for future generations.
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by brucesmall February 21, 2006 8:22 PM PST
I still have the newspaper report from around 1982 in which the leading scientists were talking about the coming ice age, since temperatures were obviously dropping. "...almost lockstep increase between the levels of CO2 and the rise of temperature in the atmosphere." Does anyone at CBS news understand that correlation and causation can be two different subjects?
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by lexalexander February 21, 2006 9:31 PM PST
journotlist: wrong myth. Hairspray (specifically, chlorofluorocarbons once used as aerosol propellants) was implicated in deterioration of the ozone layer, not global warming.
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by arj4031 February 21, 2006 11:02 PM PST
The interesting thing is that most of the remaining "skeptics" are stuck on repeat. They try to dismiss this issue with the same old arguments that have been addressed by mainstream scientists over and over again. Things like volcanic activity (sorry, unlike earlier in Earth's history, volcanic CO2 emissions are nowhere near those from current fossil fuel combustion). Solar output (it doesn't account for the sharp, ongoing warming trend, despite a burst of relatively high activity - activity that has declined slightly over the last few years). Claims that scientists were predicting an ice age in the 70's (didn't happen - mainstream climatologists admitted that the computing power and the science at the time were insufficient to state with confidence what was happening). The natural climatic events argument (never mind the timescales, processes, and populations involved in the current situation). The thickening of ice sheets in parts of Antarctica (delayed overall warming there was predicted, but coastal ice is still melting in west Antarctica, while snow pack has increased from an influx of extra moisture). And on it goes. GlobalWarmingTruth.org and RealClimate.org address these arguments and more. But despite their thorough refutation, people still use them without doing so much as a Google search. And then there are those who still confuse the issues of global warming and ozone depletion. Fascinating.
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by arj4031 February 21, 2006 11:23 PM PST
Oh, and one more thing: The 60 minutes piece was more than fair (although it only gave a somewhat narrow view of the issue - understandable considering the time constraint). They acknowledged the skeptics, but one thing we shouldn't do in the global warming discussion is confuse true skeptics who have contributed to refinement of the science, with agenda-driven contrarians who seek to misinform. We heard one common claim of such contrarians on the 60 Mintutes segment: That predicting climate is no more accurate than predicting weather. But in reality, computer models of weather are more error-prone than those of climate, partly because weather by it's very nature is more chaotic. Despite this, regional weather forecasts are relied upon to give early warning of major events. In some ways, modern climate models could be viewed as even more valuable indicators.
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by harry509 February 22, 2006 2:16 AM PST
I'm inclined to think that the so-called skeptics sponsored by certain industry interests have already had a good deal of influence on the debate (just as the tobacco companies initially confused people with their own brand of "science"). Actual researchers don't tend to have the time or desire to run disguised PR campaigns. As for consensus, the peer-reviewed literature gives a good indication of the state of the science, and it seems that there have been very few cases of clear scientific agreement being fundamentally wrong. I did find realclimate interesting, and they actually have some good articles on consensus, the "hockey stick", and the supposed "global cooling" prediction claim made by a radio blowhard who probably knows far more about pharmacology than about climatology: http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=167 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=8 http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=94 Heck, they even have a couple on Crichton's state of confusion (the "first post" is particularly interesting): http://www.realclimate.org/index.php?p=76
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by harry509 February 22, 2006 3:20 AM PST
geraldr416: On the plants & methane issue, did you bother looking into the study itself, or the follow-up press release? Several media outlets and talking heads quickly misinterpreted the study to mean that plants contribute to global warming (at least the part caused by methane), when in fact their methane output has been there all along (but not counted in sourcing estimates), and their CO2 absorption must be factored in as well. Remember, a warming trend means something in the climate system has changed and is affecting Earth's radiative balance. Here's the clarification from the researchers themselves: http://www.mpg.de/english/illustrationsDocumentation/documentation/pressReleases/2006/pressRelease200601131/
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 9:34 AM PST
Interesting that many would describe me as a Neo-Con without knowing anything about me. Also interesting that anyone who doesn't believe our actions are creating an uninhabitable Earth has some special interest (driving to work is a special interest?) >>Solar output (it doesn't account for the sharp, ongoing warming trend, despite a burst of relatively high activity - activity that has declined slightly over the last few years).<< If you look at NASA's link provided below, you'll see that the most powerful solar event every recorded, by an order of magnitude, just happened, so it hasn't been "declining over the last few years." Also not addressed is the fact that no matter what you do, including turning American Amish, you cannot do ANYTHING about the huge chunk of the world in Asia and Africa who will never go along with ANYTHING you come up with, either because it stops their forward progress, is more difficult than fossil fuel, or they can't afford it. If you think America is destroying the planet, I suggest you hop the next flight to Hong Kong. If you're lucky the government there will shut down the factories so you can see the sky. And if greenhouse gases are the problem 60 Minutes purports it to be, shouldn't we be looking at solutions to fix that rather than trying to stop it anyway? As for what this all means, it's ABSOLUTELY NOTHING compared to when the magnetic poles flip, which is going to happen (soon) no matter what you power your car with.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 9:39 AM PST
Oh, one other thing. 3000 years ago when Greenland was being settled and crops were being grown in the fertile soil, what greenhouse gases caused the warming that allowed that to happen? How did humanity survive with the oceans so high back then? We're surrounded by Chicken Littles.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 11:15 AM PST
<<...6 of the top 11 most powerful solar flares (and thusly heat) have occurred in the last 5-6 years. >> This is a clever argument. Unfortunately, the ability to track and monitor solar flares is relatively recent and so we have no accurate idea of historical trends, and therefore can't assume one way or another whether solar flares are a factor. However, I'm sure those with an axe to grind will find plenty of comfort in the data where they can snipe at alternative positions that might be critical of tax breaks for SUVs and gas guzzling consumption.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 11:22 AM PST
<<NASA's claim of global warming is a fraud. There is no evidence in China, Russia, Europe, or North America of a "mild winter". Instead, the North experienced snow, ice, sleet, and cold temperatures.>> This is not inconsistent with global warming, and is merely anecdotal - trivially countered by pointing out Phoenix has gone almost 130 days without a drop of rain, and here in northern Arizona, we have only seen a few inches of snow when we would normally have 70 - 90+ inches by now. <<Certainly, the planet is beginning an ice age.>> Really? With record melting of the polar caps thoroughly documented why are you so certain of an ice age beginning?
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 11:28 AM PST
Journotlist writes: "We're surrounded by Chicken Littles." Ah. My apologies. I initially thought you might be a rabid conservative but sice the Bush administration has thrived on a chicken-little-the-sky-is-falling-the-al-queda-are-everywhere-we-need-to-feed-the-military-we-need-to-turn-the-US-into-a-prison-to-protect-its-citizens I can see now you must detest the current administration and instead are a liberal.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 11:35 AM PST
What's funny in much of this is how eager the Right is to scoff at evidence of global warming, or claims that tobacco can cause cancer, but will support premptive war-mongering based on flawed WMD claims. lol
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 11:37 AM PST
>>Unfortunately, the ability to track and monitor solar flares is relatively recent and so we have no accurate idea of historical trends, and therefore can't assume one way or another whether solar flares are a factor.<< Wow. Does anyone read provided links? There are ways to track solar activity going back thousands of years. Direct observation and recording of solar flares has been done since 1859.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 11:43 AM PST
>>What's funny in much of this is how eager the Right is to scoff at evidence of global warming, or claims that tobacco can cause cancer, but will support premptive war-mongering based on flawed WMD claims.<< There they go again, turning it into a political argument. Claims of tobacco causing cancer, now that is based on science. I believe the argument the right would make is it is a personal choice and that choice should be left up to personal responsibility. I fail to see what any of this has to do with the wrongheaded notion that humans caused global warming, humans can stop global warming, that other factors haven't played a significant role, and that the world can't exist if the sea rises a foot in 400 years or if the seasons change. Please consider taking your political rhetoric to a more appropriate venue, like MoveOn.org.
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by foobarbaz-2009 February 22, 2006 12:07 PM PST
>>People using these consensus arguments forget that scientific truth is not determined by consensus Um. Actually, it is, more or less. That's the whole point of peer review, which is actually the standard for determining "scientific truth".
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 1:09 PM PST
<<I fail to see what any of this has to do with the wrongheaded notion that humans caused global warming, humans can stop global warming, that other factors haven't played a significant role, and that the world can't exist if the sea rises a foot in 400 years or if the seasons change.>> I'm not surprised since the assertion of Global Warming never says that humans are solely responsible, nor that their might not be other factors. What they do say is there is unambiguous evidence of polar cap recession, and that atmospheric models show temperature rises with increasing CO2 concentrations, and that there has been a substantial rise in CO2 levels that is largely correlated with oil consumption and automobile engines. Now, if we want to run the risk of more frequent Katrina's and greater lowland coastal flooding, then that's one thing. But in the absence of a clear concensus that this is what we should lie down and accept, it is reasonable to try and put the brakes on the human caused component - if only to buy time. A person might have cancer, but that doesn't mean they should ignore a cold. Yes other countries are not controllable. But who's to say wars over pollution are not in the future?
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 1:21 PM PST
<<Wow. Does anyone read provided links? There are ways to track solar activity going back thousands of years. Direct observation and recording of solar flares has been done since 1859. >> This is nonsense. Our ability to observe solar flares has changed radically over the past 150 years and some of the ones visible now could not be seen by early observers. Not all flares that indicate solar activity show sunspots - the counts of which reveal the Maunder Minimum. As for statements about the most powerful solar events ever recorded only happening recently, this is more hogwash. With a platform in space like the Solar Max we can see these events - some of which only last minutes to hours - without hinderence of weather systems etc. To infer or imply that there are substantial culpable solar changes going on now, by comparing high quality recent data with lower quality historic data, is a bit of a stretch when contrasted with documented environmental damage and increased CO2 levels.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 1:44 PM PST
Well then you've come to a conclusion where NASA has not. The fact of the matter is that the sun is delivering far more heat today than at any recorded time in history. Argue with that if you like, but the sun controls the temperature of the Earth far more than gases above it or ice below it. >>Now, if we want to run the risk of more frequent Katrina's and greater lowland coastal flooding, then that's one thing.<< Ah yes, the argument that we'll have more frequent and stronger storms like Katrina. I've heard that one a few hundred times in the antique media. You might like to know that Katrina was a class 3 hurricane which is a lightweight as hurricanes go and only caused so much damage because a bunch of people were living below sea level. The lesson should be to not live below sea level rather than "EVERYONE QUIT DRIVING CARS!" Further, we've already had a record year in hurricanes. What good is cutting greenhouse gas in America by 10% going to do when you consider the costs and the fact that you can't even prove that this was the cause of the problem. Remember the added heat from a hyperactive sun also warms water, which is 3/4 of our surface area. Not to mention that you couldn't get Asia or Africa to do ANYTHING towards the alleged problem.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 1:51 PM PST
By the way, when several hundred thousand square miles of the midwest flooded in 1993, what greenhouse gases caused that? What about when it happened in 1927? Or 1844? How is it St. Louis can handle water 20 feet above flood levels but you think the rest of the world can't handle 3 milimeters per year? Weather changes all the time, you can't control it - not now, not ever.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 2:39 PM PST
<<Well then you've come to a conclusion where NASA has not. The fact of the matter is that the sun is delivering far more heat today than at any recorded time in history. Argue with that if you like, but the sun controls the temperature of the Earth far more than gases above it or ice below it.>> The logic isn't that hard. The silliness of your position is that you are the one who should be upset about pollution since you are the one asserting increased solar intensities are to blame all the while you refuse to ignore the well established evidence that CO2 levels are a major player. You're cherry-picking your science in order to avoid seeing the elephant in the room.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 3:58 PM PST
Dismount your attack &@?%@ and you might learn something, I'm not disagreeing with your premise, only your total tally. You and 60 Minutes claim that GHG "trap" heat in this feedback loop of atmospheric heat, no? So where does this heat originally come from? The sun. If there is more heat coming from the sun, therefore more heat fed to your feedback loop, your GHG and fossil fuels may make the problem somewhat worse, but only by an insignificant purportion. Here's the problem with your (and thereby 60 Minutes') science. 1. Molecular collisions return the energy from heat depending on air density and other properties. What you're claiming caused the problem actually is only a sliver of a fraction of the sustaining properties of the problem. You're not wrong, but you're a very long way from right. 2. There is no way to reverse the consistency of the atmosphere. Slowing the release of GHG only slows the problem, it will never fix it. So even if it were the cause, there is nothing you can do about it short of destroying every human on the planet to stem the flow of CO2 and production of GHG. 3. No one tells China what to do. That's 1/6 of the world creating the vast majority of pollution. So you could have a far greater impact on the environment by taking your sermon to China. 4. The elements are going to win in the end. The sun will get hotter, the Earth will freeze a few times, bake a few times, and there is nothing you or anyone else can do about it.
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by journotlist February 22, 2006 4:07 PM PST
Let's go a step further, here. Let's say you find a way to reverse the GHG so it lets 80% more heat out of the atmosphere, and you have some magic machine that can then stop it. At some point the sun is going to significantly calm. Less heat will reach the Earth. At that point, we'll be losing more heat than we retain causing global freezing. What are you going to do then, promote muscle cars and open oil fires? You're talking about a system that can't be controlled. Scientists can talk all the junk they want. They also said calcium would keep old ladies from breaking bones. They were wrong. Again. Weather is the most complex molecular system that has ever existed. You're a damned fool if you think anyone on the planet adequately understands it enough to change it in a positive manner.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 5:25 PM PST
<<2. There is no way to reverse the consistency of the atmosphere. >> Says who? You? The ecosystem is perfectly capable of absorbing CO2 and creating it. The problem is that it appears to be overwhelmed by fossil fuel burning. By reducing fossil fuel burning, it might be possible to let nature absorb the current excess over time and thereby reduce the greenhouse effect. As for: <<Slowing the release of GHG only slows the problem...>> what's wrong with that? It's a man-made problem, so we know man can have an impact, perhaps for the better. Try telling someone with cancer or heart disease they shouldn't bother getting treated for it since it's only delaying the inevitable.
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by pjh_az February 22, 2006 5:54 PM PST
<<4. The elements are going to win in the end. The sun will get hotter, the Earth will freeze a few times, bake a few times, and there is nothing you or anyone else can do about it. >> This reasoning is absurd. Yes, they probably they will win in the end, but whether they win on a timescale of millions or billions of years as opposed to hundreds or thousands, is a pretty important question that you are either glossing over or fail to appreciate. Since mankind seems to have made a substantial contribution to CO2 levels in only 50 years, then Man can perhaps make choices that mitigate this contribution. Again, a person might be diagnosed with heart disease or cancer. According to you, they should make no effort to survive the disease since it will inevitably get them. This is ludicrous. Even worse, as a voter, you are playing the role of an insidious spoiler since you try and block the possibility of attempting a fix.
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by sumyunguy February 22, 2006 6:13 PM PST
>>If there is more heat coming from the sun, therefore more heat fed to your feedback loop, your GHG and fossil fuels may make the problem somewhat worse, but only by an insignificant purportion. << Not sure what a "purportion" is, I assume you mean proportion? Nobody is claiming that GHG and fossil fuels are what make the planet hotter - at least, nobody with an understanding of the underlying science. CO2 traps heat, preventing it from radiating out into space, and the burning of fossil fuels results in an increase of CO2 in the atmosphere. If the sun's activity increases, and causes it to generate more heat, an Earth with excessive CO2 in the atmosphere will retain more of that heat, causing a raise in overall temperature. Your points about Asia are well-taken, but if the nations of this planet don't get together and reach a consensus about this issue it's only going to hurt us in the long run. I don't think anyone is claiming that life with higher sea levels is impossible, but it's not solely a matter of higher sea levels. There are all kinds of implications that come from a hotter planet. For example, more severe hurricanes. Or hotter summers in Europe. More severe droughts. Alteration of the jet stream, which could significantly affect the northern UK. Humans are smart - we should be able to figure out alternative fuels that don't produce so many greenhouse gases.
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by scribe35 February 23, 2006 11:30 AM PST
Commentators should be wary of omitting contrary evidence because a great majority of "experts" agree and they should be heeded in the interest of "accuracy." Through history, vast majorities have been proven wrong. An overwhelming majority of scientists agreed that Louis Pasteur was not only wrong but perhaps deluded when he proposed that minute organisms cause milk to spoil. If that debate were to take place today, no doubt some commentators would omit Pasteur's theory in the interest of "accuracy." In the same vein, consider Albert Einstein when he proposed his theory of relativity. Actually, global warming has been taking place -- for thousands of years, since the end of the last ice age. Mankind may add icing to the cake, but nature will do the main job.
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by griggs1947 February 23, 2006 11:46 AM PST
BUSH IS AGINST SCIENCE, SO OFCOURSE, HE IS WITH THE POLLUTERS.HE BELIEVES IN INTELLIGENT DESIGN. HE IS FOR VOODOO ECONOMICS. HE HAS FAITH. I DON'T.
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by pjh_az February 23, 2006 1:29 PM PST
<<Actually, global warming has been taking place -- for thousands of years, since the end of the last ice age. Mankind may add icing to the cake, but nature will do the main job. >> And I suppose that because we are all going to die, it is irrelevant that we might eat a monster greasy burger and fries, with a half-gallon of diet soda for lunch each day? Frankly I find the popularity of this kind of reasoning among reactionary conservatives extremely self-serving, selfish, and short-sighted: Who cares about the world we leave to our great-grandchildren... As long as I can afford to burn a gallon of gas in my SUV as I drive to the local convenience store to buy a gallon of milk, then I'm OK. Of course when there is a buck to be made in the process, the 'inevitability' argument is conveniently forgotten by conservatives so we don't hear the argument "it's inevitable that terrorists will attack the US, so we shouldn't spend money on security."
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by sumyunguy February 24, 2006 1:08 PM PST
Read this: http://www.commondreams.org/views06/0222-27.htm Then shut up.
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