California's insurance commissioner race emerges as key contest in primary election, professor say
Monday is the deadline for counties to mail out their ballots and with only about a month until the June primary election, polls show 26% of California voters have not yet decided who to vote for to be the next governor.
When Eric Swalwell made his swift and unexpected exit from the race, it meant this wasn't going to be business as usual. California instituted its "top-two" primary system in 2010 as a way to give more moderate candidates a better chance.
Since then, political observers have begun referring to it as the "jungle primary." Because of the weird circumstances of this election, most of the more marginal contenders have stayed in the race, and now, with 1/4 of voters indicating that they are still undecided.
Democratic strategist Roger Salazar said things haven't been this murky since 1998.
"It's closest to what we're experiencing here," he said, "when Al Checchi and Jane Harman were duking it out, and beat each other up so much that it allowed Gray Davis to sort of rise from the ashes of those two and get elected governor. So, it kind of feels a lot like that."
Salazar said after Swalwell's departure, Tom Steyer's attacks on Xavier Becerra have actually elevated the former state attorney general from single-digit support to becoming a genuine threat to be the Democratic candidate on the November ballot.
Salazar said both Republican candidates, Steve Hilton and Chad Bianco, still have a realistic chance. He said that despite President Trump's endorsement of Hilton, Bianco is not losing much support.
Salazar said California voters, be they Democrat or Republican, "don't like being told what to do."
Professor Caroline Heldman from Occidental College said this was nothing Democratic leaders could have imagined.
"It's a really terrible place for the Democratic Party," she said. "It's not where they expected to be, with one in four voters undecided. And it's neck-and-neck with Tom Steyer, Steve Hilton and Xavier Becerra, having this meteoric rise. It's really a three-way race between them."
She said the lack of a clear frontrunner may actually cause a low turnout at the polls.
In normal primaries, the other down-ballot statewide offices are an afterthought for most voters. But there is one job that has become something of a hot seat.
In years past, the position of state insurance commissioner has been a safe, quiet seat for those with other political ambitions. But not anymore.
The insurance crisis has put the position in the political crosshairs and outgoing Commissioner Ricardo Lara expressed that at a hearing earlier this year.
"I don't know how to say this," he told the state's insurance oversight committee, "but I wanted you all to experience the daily challenge that the insurance commissioner faces, right? Trying to balance the consumer protections and strengthening the market, with trying to entice insurance companies to remain in this market."
The position was created by Prop 103 in 1988, and its author, Harvey Rosenfield, founder of Consumer Watchdog, said it's been a pretty sedate job since then.
"It was never a big deal," said Rosenfield. "People really didn't pay attention to the office of insurance commissioner because Proposition 103 seemed to be working well, people were saving money. It wasn't a crisis anymore."
But in the last few years, the major carriers began dropping coverage for hundreds of thousands of Californians just as mega wildfires were devastating communities. The cost of alternative insurance for those dropped has skyrocketed. Heldman said, when it comes to people's pocketbooks, the insurance commissioner may have a bigger impact than even the governor.
"I do think this particular job plays a more direct role in the everyday lives of Californians than just about any other role in state politics," she said.
The political analysts said they have no idea who will square off in November, but right now their money is on Becerra and Hilton.