Report: Draft opinion suggests Supreme Court will overturn Roe v. Wade

WASHINGTON (AP/KDKA) — A draft opinion suggests the U.S. Supreme Court could be poised to overturn the landmark 1973 Roe v. Wade case that legalized abortion nationwide, according to a Politico report released Monday.

A decision to overrule Roe would lead to abortion bans in roughly half the states and could have huge ramifications for this year's elections. But it's unclear if the draft represents the court's final word on the matter — opinions often change in ways big and small in the drafting process.

Whatever the outcome, the Politico report represents an extremely rare breach of the court's secretive deliberation process, and on a case of surpassing importance.

"Roe was egregiously wrong from the start," the draft opinion states. It was signed by Justice Samuel Alito, a member of the court's 6-3 conservative majority who was appointed by former President George W. Bush.

The document was labeled a "1st Draft" of the "Opinion of the Court" in a case challenging Mississippi's ban on abortion after 15 weeks, a case known as Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization.

The court is expected to rule on the case before its term ends in late June or early July.

President Joe Biden released this statement on Tuesday.

The draft opinion in effect states there is no constitutional right to abortion services and would allow individual states to more heavily regulate or outright ban the procedure.

"We hold that Roe and Casey must be overruled," it states, referencing the 1992 case Planned Parenthood v. Casey that affirmed Roe's finding of a constitutional right to abortion services but allowed states to place some constraints on the practice. "It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people's elected representatives."

A Supreme Court spokeswoman said the court had no comment and The Associated Press could not immediately confirm the authenticity of the draft Politico posted, which dates from February.

Politico said only that it received "a copy of the draft opinion from a person familiar with the court's proceedings in the Mississippi case along with other details supporting the authenticity of the document."

The draft opinion strongly suggests that when the justices met in private shortly after arguments in the case on Dec. 1, at least five voted to overrule Roe and Casey, and Alito was assigned the task of writing the court's majority opinion.

Votes and opinions in a case aren't final until a decision is announced or, in a change wrought by the coronavirus pandemic, posted on the court's website.

The leak jumpstarted the intense political reverberations that the high court's ultimate decision was expected to have in the midterm election year. Already, politicians on both sides of the aisle were seizing on the report to fundraise and energize their supporters on either side of the hot-button issue.

An AP-NORC poll in December found that Democrats increasingly see protecting abortion rights as a high priority for the government.

Other polling shows relatively few Americans want to see Roe overturned. In 2020, AP VoteCast found that 69% of voters in the presidential election said the Supreme Court should leave the Roe v. Wade decision as is; just 29% said the court should overturn the decision. In general, AP-NORC polling finds a majority of the public favors abortion being legal in most or all cases.

Still, when asked about abortion policy generally, Americans have nuanced attitudes on the issue, and many don't think that abortion should be possible after the first trimester or that women should be able to obtain a legal abortion for any reason.

Alito, in the draft, said the court can't predict how the public might react and shouldn't try. "We cannot allow our decisions to be affected by any extraneous influences such as concern about the public's reaction to our work," Alito wrote in the draft opinion, according to Politico.

The reported draft opinion drew strong reactions from many local Democratic politicians. Gov. Tom Wolf said abortion in Pennsylvania will stay legal and safe as long as he's governor. He pointed to his record of vetoing three anti-abortion bills and promised to veto any others. Wolf is nearing the end of his final term as governor. 

State Attorney Josh Shapiro, who is running in the Democratic primary for governor, reacted to the report of a draft opinion on Monday night. 

"I've never held back from stating the facts — the stakes of this election could not be higher. A woman's right to choose and make decisions over her own body is on the ballot," he tweeted.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Bob Casey of Pennsylvania said in a statement that he has "serious concerns about what overturning almost 50 years of legal precedent will mean for women in states passing near or total bans on abortion."

Republican U.S. Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania, in a statement on Twitter, focused on the leak than what was in the draft.

"While the motive behind this leak is unclear, I'm concerned it was released as a political ploy to pressure Justices to change their views when the rule of law—not public opinion—should determine the outcome and reasoning of a case," he said.

Pittsburgh Mayor Ed Gainey also released a statement on Twitter Tuesday morning.

"The U.S. House and Senate must immediately take up legislation reaffirming the right to abortion. Abortion continues to remain legal here in Pennsylvania and I will continue to do all I can to protect and defend that right," he said.

Congressional candidate Jerry Dickinson, plus U.S. Senate candidates John Fetterman and Malcolm Kenyatta, all took to Twitter to react to the report of a draft opinion. 

Carla Sands, a candidate for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate, offered her reaction to the report of a draft opinion.

Pennsylvania Governor Tom Wolf tweeted late Monday, "Abortion is and will remain legal in Pennsylvania."

• Roe v. Wade
• Abortion