With the 2026 Pennsylvania primary over, attention turns to November's election. Here's what to watch.
Polls are closed, and results are in for Pennsylvania's 2026 primary elections. The night was big in determining which candidates would represent their respective parties come the fall.
The marquee matchup of the night was likely in Pennsylvania's 3rd Congressional District, encompassing large swaths of Philadelphia.
State Rep. Chris Rabb, the race's progressive candidate, beat out three other Democrats to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Dwight Evans. In the deeply Democratic district and with no Republican currently in the race, Rabb is a near lock to head to Washington in January.
But other races on Tuesday night set up key matchups for an important midterm season. And analysts say Pennsylvania will likely play a key role in determining which party controls Congress.
"Coast to coast, there frankly aren't a lot of House races that we think look really competitive," said CBS News Director of Elections and Surveys Anthony Salvanto. "But there are a bunch in Pennsylvania. And so the road to House control may very well run through Pennsylvania, and more specifically, eastern Pennsylvania."
Analysts see four Pennsylvania Congressional districts as competitive in November.
The districts — Pennsylvania's 1st in Bucks and parts of Montgomery, the 7th encompassing the Lehigh Valley and Carbon County, the 8th in Pennsylvania's Northeast, and the 10th surrounding Harrisburg — are all currently held by Republicans.
John Kennedy, a professor of political science at West Chester University, says Democratic voters are motivated right now, and while President Trump remains popular within the GOP (as evidenced by his ousting of multiple intra-party foes during the primaries), his approval numbers have steadily slid amid economic concerns.
Kennedy also points out that most of these four races were competitive two years ago, when Mr. Trump was on the ballot.
"The question is, will Republicans vote in big numbers in 2026 when his name, the Donald J. Trump name, is not on the ballot?" Kennedy said.
In the 7th District, retired firefighter Bob Brooks emerged from a field of four candidates to win the Democratic nomination. He'll face incumbent Republican Ryan Mackenzie in the fall, who flipped the Lehigh Valley seat red in 2024 by just over 4,000 votes.
Kennedy says this seat will likely draw plenty of attention and could be one of the most competitive in the country.
"Of the four seats that are competitive this year, I would say this is absolutely the Democrats' best opportunity for a pickup," Kennedy said. "[Since the 1950s] essentially, both parties have controlled this seat an equal number of times. So this is a quintessential swing seat."
Just south of the Lehigh Valley in Pennsylvania's 1st District, incumbent Republican Brian Fitzpatrick could also be tested. He's set to face Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie, who won Tuesday's Democratic primary.
Of the four districts analysts discussed, Fitzpatrick had the widest margin of victory in 2024, easily holding his seat by nearly 60,000 votes. And the Republican has consistently won the purple district encompassing Bucks County and an eastern sliver of Montgomery over the last decade.
Kennedy noted Fitzpatrick's previous success in the district, but also pointed to Democratic wins in county-wide races for district attorney and sheriff.
"It's going to be very hard to defeat him. But again, this is the best opportunity Democrats have had since the 2018 wave election when they narrowly, narrowly, when they came very close to defeating him," Kennedy said.
In that 2018 race, Fitzpatrick held onto his seat by a little more than 8,000 votes.
But the Republican may face some challenges from within his own party, and specifically from Mr. Trump.
Mr. Trump endorsed each incumbent House Republican in Pennsylvania in 2026 except Fitzpatrick. And on Wednesday, the president took a thinly veiled shot at the sitting Republican when answering a question from Fitzpatrick's fiancé, Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich.
"Her husband, she's married to a certain Congressman, he likes voting against Trump. You know what happens with that? Doesn't work out well," Mr. Trump said on his way to the U.S. Coast Guard Academy.
In Pennsylvania's 8th District, Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan will look to hold his seat against Democratic challenger and Scranton Mayor Paige Cognetti. Bresnahan was another Pennsylvania Republican to flip a Democratic-held seat red in 2024, winning the Northeastern district by just over 6,000 votes.
And Pennsylvania's 10th District was even closer two years ago. Longtime Republican incumbent Scott Perry held on to his Harrisburg-area seat by just over 5,000 votes, beating Democrat Janelle Stelson. Those two will match up once again this November.
With redistricting battles playing out across the country, analysts say competitive races are becoming fewer and fewer. Kennedy said that makes these Pennsylvania seats an even bigger prize.
"[Democrats] need to flip at least two of these, if not three, to retake control of the House," Kennedy said.
But he warned there is still a lot of time between now and November, and there will likely be a few twists and turns that happen before Election Day.
Regardless, he and others expect both parties will spend a lot of time and money in the Keystone State as we near the fall.