Video shows Punxsutawney Phil see his shadow, predict 6 more weeks of winter
On the heels of a brutal stretch of bitter cold and snow, Punxsutawney Phil has predicted another six weeks of winter after seeing his shadow early Monday morning.
Despite the cold, thousands of people gathered at Gobbler's Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania, to celebrate Groundhog Day and watch Phil emerge from his stump and make his prediction for 2026.
The seasonal celebration began around 3 a.m. before Tom Dunkel, president of the Groundhog Club's Inner Circle, knocked on Phil's burrow three times to coax him out. After Dunkel spoke "Groundhogese" with Phil, Vice President Dan McGinley read the scroll containing Phil's prediction: "It is my job this February 2 to look to the skies and report back to you, that there is a shadow here on my ground, six more weeks of winter abound!"
What is Groundhog Day?
Groundhog Day traces its roots to the Christian holiday of Candlemas Day, when Christians would take their candles to church to have them blessed for the rest of winter, according to the Punxsutawney Groundhog Club.
Eventually, lyrics in an English folk song connected the holiday to the weather – a "fair and bright" Candlemas meant more winter; "clouds and rain" signaled the season's end.
German lore brought in the animal connection, where if a hedgehog saw its shadow on Candlemas Day, six more weeks of winter were on the way. When German settlers arrived in the United States, they brought with them the same legend, though in America, that animal evolved from a hedgehog to a groundhog.
In modern-day Gobbler's Knob, Groundhog Day is a celebration of the legend that put Punxsutawney on the map.
The Groundhog Club says Groundhog Day was first recognized in Punxsutawney in 1886, and Phil made his first prediction in Gobbler's Knob the following year.
How often is Punxsutawney Phil right?
If you use Groundhog Day to decide whether or not the snow boots stay close, you might want to consider another weather prediction source. According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Punxsutawney Phil's predictions were right about 30% of the time in the last 10 years.
Since he started making predictions, records show Phil has predicted more winter 109 times and an early spring 28 times, the most recent year being 2024. NOAA even says Phil was "spot on" in his forecast two years ago: The contiguous United States saw above-average temperatures that February and March.
Is there a weather-predicting groundhog more accurate than Phil?
Apparently, yes.
In 2025, NOAA took a look at 19 groundhogs and "alternative groundhogs" from around the country who've become famous for their own weather predictions to see who has the most accurate track record. The critters in competition had to meet the following criteria:
- They've been prognosticating for at least 20 years
- They were active prognosticators as of Feb. 2, 2024
According to NOAA, Staten Island Chuck, aka Charles G. Hogg of the New York City Staten Island Zoo, is the most reliable weather-predicting groundhog with an 85% accuracy rate.
In comparison, Punxsutawney Phil's 35% accuracy rate landed him in 17th place, only ahead of Michigan's Woody the Woodchuck and a tortoise from Nevada named Mojave Max.