Chatelain: Teams To Like, Hate In NCAA Tournament

By Ryan Chatelain
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There are a lot of different approaches to filling out an NCAA Tournament bracket. Some of us look at nothing but seeds and records. Some of us lean heavily of the media. Some make their picks based on colors and mascots and infuriatingly somehow hold their own in office pools.

Me, I take an analytical approach -- Goose Gossage would call me nerd.

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Heck, even I'll admit I get downright nerdy with this stuff. In making my picks, I pour over an assortment of metrics -- record over the last 10 games, losses by five or fewer points, number of upperclassmen in the starting lineup, etc.

In looking at this year's tourney pool, some numbers jumped off the page at me, leading me to lean heavily in favor or against certain teams.

5 TEAMS TO LIKE

Northern Iowa
The Panthers' 22-12 record isn't pretty when compared to other NCAA Tournament teams, but they're playing their best ball now, having won 12 of their last 13. They've also beaten North Carolina, Iowa State and Wichita State this season. Not only is 11th-seeded Northern Iowa an attractive upset pick over sixth-seeded Texas in the first round, the Panthers are a solid sleeper candidate to reach the Sweet 16.

Little Rock
The Trojans are harder to get a good read on because they've only played one team that reached the NCAA Tournament this season, losing to Texas Tech back in December. But Little Rock won an impressive 29 games, 15 by double digits. And all five of its starters are upperclassmen, often a trait of small schools that make deep runs in the tournament. And, of course, 12 seeds -- which Little Rock is this season -- are often dangerous. If the Trojans (29-4) can get by Purdue in the first round, they would face either Iowa State or Iona in the second round -- both of which are vulnerable.

Duke
I suspect there will be a temptation to assume Duke, which lost an uncharacteristic 10 games this season, won't go far. But the truth is the young Blue Devils (23-10) are better than people think. They lost six games by five or fewer points, and last month, they beat No. 13 Louisville, No. 7 Virginia and No. 5 North Carolina in consecutive games. Fourth-seeded Duke, with sophomore guard Grayson Allen leading the way, should be able to handle UNC-Wilmington and Baylor in the first two rounds and, depending on which version of the Blue Devils shows up, has a legitimate shot against top-seeded Oregon in the round of 16.

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Miami
I'm not sure the third-seeded Hurricanes will be able to get by Kansas in the Elite Eight, but I'd be shocked if they exit the tournament early, and I like them to upset Villanova on the second weekend. Miami (25-7) has an eye-catching 12-3 record against top-50 teams, according to the Sagarin Ratings. In other words, the Canes have had plenty of practice -- and success -- against quality opponents.

Oklahoma
Few teams are more battle-tested than the Sooners. Led by stellar guard Bobby Hield, Oklahoma had a 25-7 record against the fourth-toughest schedule in the nation, notching wins over Iowa State, Baylor, West Virginia, Texas and Villanova and losing in triple overtime to Kansas. And of its seven losses, five came by five or fewer points. It's easy to fall in love with a 2 seed, but I love this 2 seed to reach the Final Four. And how great would it be to see Oklahoma and Kansas play again in the Final Four?

5 TEAMS TO HATE

Maryland
The Terrapins' 25-8 record and No. 5 seed might look impressive on the surface, but they have stumbled badly down the stretch, losing five of their last eight games. I'm picking 12th-seeded South Dakota State in a first-round upset.

USC
Speaking of stumbling, no team enters the tournament colder than the Trojans, who have lost seven of their last 10 games. During one stretch in late February, USC (21-12) dropped three straight to unranked teams by an average margin of 17.7 points. Go with ninth-seeded Providence over the eighth-seeded Trojans.

Iowa
The Hawkeyes (21-10) have dropped six of their last eight. Most of those games were tight, but that's part of the problem: Iowa hasn't proven it can win the close games with any consistency. The seventh-seeded Hawkeyes should have their hands full against 10th-seeded Temple.

Pittsburgh
The Panthers (21-11) have a lousy 7-10 record since Jan. 14, were just 9-9 in ACC play and are a miserable 1-7 vs. ranked teams. Tenth-seeded Pittsburgh's first-round tournament foe is seventh-seeded Wisconsin (ranked No. 25 in the USA Today Coaches Poll). Don't think upset here. Go with the higher-seeded Badgers.

Syracuse
Some will inevitably be enticed to pick big-name Syracuse, a 10 seed, against little ol' Dayton, a 7 seed. Don't do it. Syracuse has lost five of its last six games and is just 5-10 vs. top-50 teams, according to the Sagarin Ratings. Dayton, meanwhile, has plenty of recent NCAA Tournament experience and had quality wins over VCU, Vanderbilt, Iowa and Monmouth this season. Honestly, the Orange don't belong in this tournament.

Follow Ryan on Twitter at @ryanchatelain