Higher snow totals likely south and east of NYC from Sunday into Monday. Here's the latest forecast.
All eyes are fixed on a developing coastal storm over the weekend, with higher snow totals increasingly likely for New York City and the Tri-State Area.
A winter storm watch and a First Alert Weather Day are in effect for the Tri-State Area, starting Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
After what is expected to be a remarkably nice Saturday featuring some sun and milder temperatures reaching the mid-to-upper 40s, colder air will rush back in on Sunday in advance of the next storm.
Forecast models remain at odds on how much snow the region will get, but the general consensus is north and west of New York City will see at least 6-10 inches, while points south and east could get up to 15 inches. The snowfall will be heavy at times with blizzard conditions featuring winds up to 50 mph possible.
The GFS model, which has been showing a significant snowstorm for days, continues to be the most aggressive with projections. As of Friday evening, the outputs suggest parts of the area could see upwards of 20 inches of snow, with the biggest amounts inland and on the coast.
The EURO model, which has trended a bit closer to the coast in its track recently, is calling for a more modest 6-8 inches of snow in most locations.
For now, it's best to plan for accumulating light to moderate snow that could begin as early as Sunday morning, becoming steadier during the day. Lingering impacts may extend into Monday morning's commute.
In addition to snow, the strengthening storm offshore can also bring with it gusty winds and minor to moderate coastal flooding as well.
Timing it out
7 a.m.-1 p.m. Sunday: A vigorous area of low pressure starts to rapidly develop off the Mid-Atlantic coastline. As a result, snow moves into the region from south to north. It will be light to moderate at times. Along the coast, plain rain is likely.
1 p.m. Sunday-10 a.m. Monday: As the area of low pressure strengthens further, it then becomes a nor'easter as it moves up the coast. Any leftover rain will chance over to snow for everyone. Snow will become very heavy at times and may fall at rates of 1-2 inches per hour. Winds will also increase, especially at the coast, gusting between 30-50 mph at times. This may lead to downed trees and branches. Blizzard conditions, when winds are at or above 35 mph combined with falling or blowing snow for at least three hours, could occur, especially in Suffolk County. Coastal flooding of up to 2.5 feet is likely during the high-tide cycles between Sunday night and Monday morning.
10 a.m.-1 p.m. Monday: The storm will start winding down, but snow could still fall moderately at times. It may not be completely done until the mid-to-late afternoon hours. In general, south and east of the city is where the highest likelihood of seeing snow totals of more than a foot. The city could see 6-10 inches, while northwestern locations along may only see 4-8 inches.
Snowfall by region
New York City: 6-10 inches
Long Island: 10-15 inches
Central Jersey and Jersey Shore: 6-10 inches inland. 10-15 inches along the coastline
Northern New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and Connecticut: 6-10 inches
Upper Hudson Valley and far Northwestern New Jersey: 4-8 inches
NYC snow preps
New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani said pre-snow operations will start Saturday, with plows being mounted, salt spreaders being loaded and crews being prepared. Sunday, Department of Sanitation workers will work 12-hour shifts. A Code Blue will be in effect.
The First Alert Weather Team will continue to monitor the storm's track and trends and provide updates on air and online throughout the weekend. On Sunday, we'll have hourly updates live on CBS News New York starting at noon.
Click here to check the latest weather watches, warnings and alerts in our area.