Winter officially begins Sunday. How much snow should NYC expect?

Winter officially begins Sunday, and our first snowfall of the season is already on the books, delivering scenic and slippery conditions.

So how much more snow can we expect this winter? CBS News New York meteorologist Vanessa Murdock checked in with two weather experts for their take:  Nelson Vaz, warning coordination meteorologist with the National Weather Service, and Dr. Dave Robinson, New Jersey state climatologist with Rutgers University.

"Do the patterns that we're seeing evolving point to what could be a snowy winter? No," Robinson said.

"The key word is going to be variability," Vaz said.

Weak La Niña could cause below average snowfall, experts say

Vaz said there's not strong signal for a consistent pattern, and a weak La Niña is to blame. La Niña is when cold water pools in the eastern equatorial Pacific, impacting weather here in the United States.

"Generally with La Niñas, the areas that see above-normal snowfall is across the northern United States into the Great Lakes then into New England," Vaz said.

"It tends to keep our region a little drier than normal and a little less snowy than normal," Robinson said.

Robinson points to last season as an example.

"It was another La Niña winter. We didn't do real well in the snow department," he said.

Only 12.9" of snow landed in the park.

"If you go back in history, two-thirds of the weak La Niñas have been below normal," Vaz said.

You get the picture — odds favor underwhelming seasonal snowfall. But never rule out one big snow.

"I'm not discounting the chance of a significant snowfall that might lead to memories," Robinson said.

It takes the perfect pairing of cold air and a strong storm rolling up the coast.

CBS News New York First Alert Weather Team's winter snowfall forecast

Over the past 30 years, Central Park picked up an average from 29.8 inches of snow per season with accumulation each month from October through April.

So far this season, 2.9 inches fell and melted away, and forecasts indicate snow enthusiasts may be disappointed by what is, or is not, to come.

The CBS News New York First Alert Weather Team is forecasting 15-20 inches of total snow in Central Park this season.