Nor'easter barreling toward NYC this weekend. Here's what to expect, and when.
The CBS New York First Alert Weather Team is tracking a nor'easter this weekend as a storm system taking aim at the East Coast strengthens, prompting coastal flood alerts in the New York City area.
Heavy rain, gusty winds and coastal flooding are all on the table, but how bad the weather actually gets depends on the storm's track through New York, New Jersey and Connecticut.
New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy said Friday the Garden State is preparing.
"We are expecting a coastal storm beginning early Sunday morning with the potential to bring severe flooding. Remain alert and monitor your local weather," Murphy wrote on social media.
Coastal flood warnings in effect
The developing area of low pressure will track along the East Coast near the Carolinas and then through Virginia and the Delmarva Peninsula on Saturday. As this coastal low approaches the Tri-State Area, we anticipate strengthening and conditions to deteriorate through the weekend.
Right now, we're expecting 2-3 inches of rain in some areas, with wind gusts potentially topping 40-60 mph along the coast. That's enough to cause street flooding, some power outages and even travel delays.
A coastal flood warning is in place Sunday morning through Monday afternoon for counties along the shores of the Tri-State Area. A range of 2-3 inches of sea water inundation is expected, leading to coastal flooding and beach erosion.
If the storm hugs the shoreline, New York City could see the brunt of the rain and wind Sunday into Monday. If it tracks more offshore, the impact will be lighter -- but it's too soon to tell.
Here's the bottom line:
- Flooding: Low-lying and waterfront areas may deal with water on streets and in basements.
- Wind: Strong gusts could knock down branches and cause scattered power outages.
- Transit: Air travel could also see delays or cancellations.
- Driving: Heavy rain and ponding will make for slick roads -- not the best holiday weekend for road trips.
Timing of the storm
The storm hovering over the Carolina coastline is forecast to move north over the weekend. A new model has the system tracking further north and closer to the coastline. This will play out in the form of a more widespread and longer duration rain event, stronger winds that spread further inland, and a higher threat of coastal flooding.
On Saturday, a few rain showers and or light drizzle are anticipated to develop intermittently throughout the day. Winds will also pick up, gusting between 20-30 mph at times. Highs will generally top out in the mid to upper 60s. Lows overnight will mainly be in the 50s.
On and off showers will continue through Sunday morning, before the main event begins in the afternoon. From Sunday afternoon through Monday evening, rounds of heavy rain and wind will pivot through the region. In between the rounds will be some lulls. The heaviest bout of rain is anticipated to arrive in the wee hours of Monday morning. Winds are also likely to be highest in the early hours of Monday.
Our greatest concerns
Being that it is the middle of October, most of the trees still have leaves on them. This makes them more susceptible to wind damage. With wind gusts in the 40-60 mph range, many trees are likely to be toppled, leading to home damage and power outages.
As the storm is expected to linger over the region for several days, there will be higher than normal tides, and multiple high tide cycles during its duration. This will lead to several rounds of coastal flooding, which in some cases may reach 3 feet of inundation.
While the chance of localized freshwater flooding is certainly there, the rain will fall over a period of days. This would decrease the threat of flash flooding, even with several inches of rain potentially falling. The overall dry pattern of late also helps with this.
Here's what to know:
- A nor'easter will affect the region from Sunday into Monday
- Timing: 2 p.m. Sunday through roughly 6 p.m. Monday
- Moderate to heavy rain is likely, especially at the coast. 2-3" with higher totals in some locations
- High winds, especially at the coast, gusting between 40-60 mph
- Moderate to major coastal flooding for all coastal areas
- Substantial beach erosion
Gale watch
On top of the coastal flood alerts, there is a gale watch in place for New York Harbor from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.
We anticipate winds in the harbor to be 35-45 mph with gusts as high as 50 mph. Waves in the harbor will be 4-7 feet.
The gale watch also includes Sandy Hook, New Jersey, to Montauk Point, New York, out 20 nautical miles. Waves closer to Sandy Hook would range from 5-8 feet. Waves closer to the East End would be near 15-20 feet.
Winds will be whipping throughout the area this weekend and there is already a high wind watch issued for Brooklyn and Queens, as well as Nassau, Suffolk, Monmouth and Ocean counties. Winds will 30-40 mph and gusting to near 60 mph.
If you're struggling to find the bright side to all of this, the latest drought conditions were released Thursday morning, and a considerable part of our area is now under a moderate drought, with severe drought conditions across North Jersey.
We need the rain.
Click here to check the latest watches, warnings and alerts.