NYC may see the most snowfall it's had in years starting Friday night

Merry Christmas to all! 

We've issued a First Alert Weather Day for Friday evening into Saturday morning due to accumulating snow that could be heavy at times.

A Winter Storm Watch in place for the entire area, except eastern Suffolk County. Click here for the latest winter weather watches, warnings and alerts. A Winter Storm Warning is in effect for Ulster and Dutchess counties. 

Despite some flurries in our region earlier this morning, Christmas 2025 will not be recorded as a White Christmas. 

It will go down as a Christmas Day that features a mix of sun and clouds, with highs in the mid 40s. Winds will start to increase by the late afternoon hours, gusting to 30 mph at times. 

Those winds will signal the arrival of another cold blast for tonight. Lows will dip into the lower 20s for the city and points south, while teens will be common north of the city. Wind chills will range from the teens into the single digits.

Rolling into Friday, clear skies will quickly cloud over in advance of a significant winter storm that will bring widespread impacts to the Tri-State Region from Friday evening into Saturday morning. 

With highs only in the upper 20s to low 30s, the main impacts would mainly be heavy snow. Some mixing with sleet and freezing rain is possible well to the south and west of the city. Thankfully, high winds are not anticipated to be an issue with this storm. 

Forecast model data continues to suggest that a general 4–8-inch snowfall is likely with this system. Areas to the north may see higher totals, while areas to the south may see less. As everyone knows, substantial snowfall in and around New York City has been hard come by for the last several years. If the 4–8-inch range forecast verifies, it would be the most snow in the city since late January 2022, when a strong coastal storm put down 8.5 inches in Central Park.

Breaking It Down:

4 p.m. - 7 p.m Friday

As a wave of low pressure develops along a stationary front, snow will move into our region from west to east. Initially, it will be on the light side, but as the evening progresses, it becomes moderate to heavy. With high temperatures below freezing on Friday, the freezing line will be well to the south of NYC, so precipitation type won't be a question at first. 

7 p.m. Friday - 7 a.m. Saturday

Prime time of the storm. Snow is likely to be very heavy at times. Snowfall rates may reach 1 inch per hour or more during this timeframe, leading to quick accumulations. For areas south and west of the city, some mixing with sleet and freezing rain is possible, especially in Ocean County. This may cut down snow totals there. No mixing is expected for areas to the north. 

7 a.m. - 1 p.m. Saturday

The storm starts winding down. Precipitation ends from west to east. A general 4–8-inch snowfall is anticipated, with higher amounts north and west of the city, and lower amounts southwest of the city. Skies may even clear just in time for a nice sunset. With a fresh snowpack and clear skies, temperatures on Saturday night will plummet quickly back into the 20s and teens, leaving untreated surfaces icy and dangerous. 

Snowfall By Region:

NYC: 4-8"

Long Island: 4-8" for Nassau and western Suffolk Counties. 2-4" for eastern Suffolk County

Central Jersey and Jersey Shore: 4-8". 2-4" for central and southern Ocean County

Northern New Jersey, Lower Hudson Valley, and Connecticut: 4-8"

Upper Hudson Valley and far Northwestern New Jersey: 8-10"