Will winter in NYC be cold and snowy or mild and dry this year? Here's our 2025 winter outlook.
With the first day of winter just over eight weeks away, we're getting an early look at what to expect in New York City in the coming months. The First Alert Weather team is analyzing local weather trends, the latest information from NOAA, and factors such as La Niña and the jet stream.
Less snow than usual recently
In the last few years, New York City has not had much snow, due to mild and dry winters.
The 30-year average for the city is 29.8 inches of snow each winter season, but that was not the case in the last three years.
For example, 2022-23 winter was the least snowy winter on record in the city with only 2.3 inches of snow falling.
In 2023-24 winter, New York received only 7.5 inches of snow. Last year, winter was slightly snowier with 13 inches, but that was still more than a foot below normal.
This upcoming winter could be no different. There is no strong signal for a snowy winter.
La Niña expected to impact winter weather across U.S.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Organization (NOAA) annually issues a winter outlook for all 50 states, and they do it as early as October.
This year, they are calling for La Niña conditions to impact winter weather across the country. La Niña is a cooling phase of the top layer of the Pacific Ocean near the equator next to South America. This cooler water causes the Pacific jet stream to move north closer to Alaska, creating variable weather conditions in the U.S. from December through February.
This typically means colder weather with more precipitation – rain or snow – for the northern states, and warmer and drier conditions for the southern states.
What to expect this winter in NYC
Here in the Northeast and coastal cities such as New York, La Niña does not show a strong cold, warm, snowy or dry signal.
During La Niña winter, New York City weather more depends on the position of the nearby jet stream and other atmospheric factors that can't be predicted more than two weeks in advance.
The position of the nearby jet stream will be crucial this winter because it will determine if the city gets snow or rain during a winter storm.
The official NOAA forecast predicts slightly warmer than normal winter for New York City, but this does not mean we can't have cold outbreaks. It means, if you average all days together in the upcoming winter, it will be warmer than 30-year average.
When it comes to rain and snow, NOAA calls for equal chances of being above or below normal.
So, if you are waiting for that "Hallmark movie" New York City winter with lots of snow and freezing temperatures that our parents and grandparents always remind us about, you might be in for a disappointment.