Russian lawmakers' request for Putin to recognize Ukraine's breakaway regions gives him another card to play
Kyiv — Russian lawmakers voted on Tuesday to send a formal request to President Vladimir Putin to recognize the independence of two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine's Donbas region.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Wednesday that if Putin were to sign the legislation, it would "amount to the Russian government's wholesale rejection of its commitments" under previously negotiated, but never fully implemented peace agreements known as the Minsk Accords.
Both the West and Russia have said they view the Minsk Accords, which ended major fighting between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian forces in Donbas in 2015, as roadmaps to a diplomatic solution to the current crisis. While the war in Donbas was quieted by the agreements, the fighting never completely stopped. Ukraine's government says the grinding conflict has now left at least 14,000 people dead.
The appeal to recognize the two breakaway regions, which call themselves the Luhansk People's Republic and the Donetsk People's Republic, is now on Putin's desk. The Russian leader said the overwhelming passage of the legislation by lawmakers in Russia's parliament, the Duma, showed the Russian peoples' empathy for the people of Donbas, but he's given no indication that he'll approve the measure.
"Enactment of this resolution would further undermine Ukraine's sovereignty and territorial integrity, constitute a gross violation of international law, call into further question Russia's stated commitment to continue to engage in diplomacy to achieve a peaceful resolution of this crisis, and necessitate a swift and firm response from the United States in full coordination with our Allies and partners," Blinken said Wednesday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters in Moscow, meanwhile, that Putin had said "the main task is to implement the Minsk package of measures," and he added that the Kremlin agreed that recognizing the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk would contradict the Minsk Accords.
What are the Minsk Accords?
The Minsk Accords, named for the capital of Belarus where they were signed in 2014 and 2015, aimed to secure a ceasefire between Russian-backed separatists and Ukrainian government forces fighting in Donetsk and Lunhansk. They set out a path for elections in the two regions, and for their reintegration into Ukraine.
Donetsk and Luhansk, which are both largely Russian-speaking rather than Ukrainian-speaking, unilaterally declared independence from Ukraine in 2014.
But while Western nations and Russia say they want to pursue diplomacy using the accords as a roadmap, the two sides have different views on what the accords actually mean.
The Ukrainian government views the agreements as a way to reunite the country, though the two breakaway regions would be given some devolved powers. Russia sees them as a way to install Moscow-aligned administrations with special powers in the regions before they're reintegrated into Ukraine, which would give Russia significant influence over Ukraine's domestic affairs.
Another card for Putin to play
While Peskov said the Kremlin's aim is to continue pursuing diplomacy for now, if Putin decides the ongoing diplomacy is no longer working to his favor, he could recognize the breakaway regions to increase pressure on Kyiv without taking direct military action.
The U.S. has warned for weeks that Putin's regime might also attempt to stage a so-called false-flag incident — making it look like Ukrainian forces had attacked rebels or even civilians in Donbas and then using that as a pretext to attack Ukraine from the east, as he did in 2014.
The Duma's vote on Tuesday has effectively given Putin another card to play, if he wants to use it.