Democrats' path to power may come through hundreds of races far from Washington

Much of national Democrats' attention in next year's midterms is centered on working to flip control of the U.S. House and win consequential races for governor. But some in the party have zeroed in on less talked-about elections, in presidential battlegrounds and ruby-red states around the country, that could prove less costly and have a far-reaching impact at a time when the Democratic brand has grown wearisome with some voters.

Democrats' state legislative campaign arm is outlining a potential path "to flip more than 650 state legislative seats" across a range of states. A major focus is on races in battleground states like Wisconsin, Michigan and Arizona, and the group is aiming to curtail GOP power in places like Iowa, Kansas, Missouri and Ohio, where Republican control has been impactful. 

"The favorable political environment taking shape for Democrats is on a scale that only comes once in a generation," a new memo from Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee president Heather Williams says, while also outlining that a "first priority right now is to fund and invest early in our battleground states as part of our $50 million power expansion strategy to win on this map." 

When pressed for details, a spokesperson told CBS News that $50 million is the group's "estimated budget," but "we also still have a lot of work ahead to raise the full amount."

Democrats have lost around 800 state legislative seats over the last 15 years, according to data from the National Conference of State Legislatures, significantly weakening their power in capitals nationwide. 

Governors on the left in Wisconsin, Arizona and North Carolina contend with GOP-controlled legislatures, and Democrats only control one chamber of the legislature in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.

But races up and down the ballot in November 2026 may prove difficult for Republicans given the political rebuke that the president's party usually faces in a midterm cycle. And while 2024 was a strong year for the GOP, legislative elections this year in Virginia and New Jersey have given Democrats hope.

Republicans are attempting to push back against the national narrative that Democrats have an edge in next year's midterms.

"After historic losses in 2024, we knew the Democrats were going to come into this next cycle prepared. Their strategy of leaning on emotion, money, and machine politics to claw back short-term momentum will not last," Edith Jorge-Tuñón, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in a November 2025 memo. 

Republicans have seen firsthand how statehouse majorities can prove critical in Washington in recent months, as GOP  leaders in North Carolina, Missouri and Texas redraw their congressional maps mid-decade in an attempt to help Republicans keep at least a narrow majority in the U.S. House.

Over the years, Democrats have wrestled with reduced sway in a range of states, giving way to fears of a depleted bench of candidates to run in higher-profile races where money and a flashy campaign can't match the kind of goodwill built up in communities through years of elected service. 

Within states where that pipeline does exist, candidate quality has made a profound difference at times for Democrats.

In the reliably Republican state of Kansas, Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly has won two terms in distinctly different political environments after having served as a state senator. 

In Michigan, the constant presidential battleground where political power pivots back and forth, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer served in both the state House and state Senate before being elected statewide for the first time in 2018. 

And in the politically divided commonwealth of Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro was a representative years before he became a political heavyweight now seen as a potential Democratic presidential candidate in 2028. 

"State legislative Democrats are local elected officials who are very close to their communities and very close to voters," Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said in an interview. "We are able to deliver an aspect of the Democratic brand and the Democratic storytelling that is better than anyone else, because it is rooted in everyday, regular conversations and needs." 

One of the major aspects of next year's midterms that has gone less talked-about is how strong President Trump's own influence will prove to be in a year when he isn't running for office himself. 

In presidential election years, the president and his orbit have shown a strong ability to upend political trends and bring out voters who may have chosen to stay at home with another candidate. Whether Republicans can inspire those kinds of voters without him on the ballot is a lingering question and one that is especially urgent for the GOP after Mr. Trump won Michigan, Wisconsin and other presidential battleground states during his last White House run.  

"Republicans underperformed at the top of the ticket in areas where President Trump excelled in 2024 – a clear reminder that authenticity and engagement drive enthusiasm," Jorge-Tuñón, the president of the Republican State Leadership Committee, said in the group's 2025 post-election memo. 

It's far from certain that Democrats will be able to make the gains outlined by the statehouse-focused Democratic campaign committee. But doing so could have widespread impacts, with the political outfit outlining in the memo the chance to not only flip Republican-held chambers in Arizona, Michigan and Wisconsin, but also potentially defeat Republican supermajorities in 10 states. 

"I think there are a lot of people in the state of Wisconsin that showed up for Donald Trump that now have buyer's remorse," Wisconsin Senate Democratic leader Dianne Hesselbein said.