Massive emergency oil release fails to stem investor fears as oil tops $100 a barrel
Stocks slid and oil prices again topped $100 a barrel on Thursday as Iran continued its attacks on U.S allies in the Persian Gulf and ships in the region.
"Iran's strategy of sowing economic chaos in the Gulf is working as tankers come under attack and Hormuz stays shuttered, pushing Brent up toward $100," Wall Street analyst Adam Crisafulli, head of Vital Knowledge, said in a research note.
Oil prices flared despite moves by the Trump administration and the International Energy Agency to inject into global energy markets. The IEA, which includes 32 member countries, announced Wednesday that it would release 400 million barrels to shore up global supply, the largest release in the organization's history.
"The war in the Middle East is creating the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market," the IEA said in a statement Thursday.
President Trump followed suit on Wednesday night and ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News on Thursday the U.S. is using the IAE releases and other actions to "keep the market supplied through this brief period," and said the short-term disruption in oil supply is worth it for the "enormous long-term gain we'll get."
However, unrelenting attacks on shipping traffic and energy infrastructure in the Gulf have continued to stoke investor fears, pushing Brent crude over $100 a barrel early Thursday.
As of 4:12 p.m. EDT, a barrel of Brent crude, the international benchmark, had climbed to $101.43, while the price of West Texas Intermediate, the U.S. benchmark, was at $96.50, according to FactSet.
Oil analysts said that energy markets are likely to remain volatile until there is meaningful progress in ensuring that ships can travel safely through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that connects the Persian Gulf to the global market.
Stocks slide
With no end in sight to the conflict in the Middle East, investors appeared to largely ignore the emergency oil release. The S&P 500 sank 103 points, or 1.5%, to close at 6,673, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 740 points, or 1.6%, to close at 46,678. The Nasdaq Composite slid 1.8%.
Analysts note that investors tend to look past geopolitical conflicts and focus on market fundamentals. Yet markets could take longer to recalibrate this time, according to Ryan Sweet, chief global economist at Oxford Economics.
"The rebound in financial markets has been quick following past major military conflicts in the Middle East since the 1990s, but this time it could be more gradual," he said.
Other factors outside of the war in the Middle East were also weighing on investors Thursday, according to Crisafulli, who cited uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs. The Trump administration on Wednesday took steps to impose new tariffs under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, following a February ruling by the Supreme Court that stuck down many of President Trump's tariffs.
$3.60 a gallon
Gas prices, which are influenced by the cost of oil, taxes and other seasonal factors, also swung higher on Thursday, hitting $3.60 a gallon, according to AAA. That's up about 60 cents since before the war started. The cost of oil accounts for roughly 50% of the price of gas, according to industry figures.
Patrick De Haan, a petroleum expert at GasBuddy, predicts gas prices are likely to approach $4 a gallon, while diesel, which was $4.86 a gallon as of Thursday, could jump to $5 a gallon.
The "172 million barrel SPR release highlights the degree of the situation, he said in a post on X. "Finite releases still don't replace the Strait of Hormuz."
Even with the release of additional oil reserves, the world's supply of crude remains strained.
Gulf countries have cut total oil production by at least 10 million barrels per day due to limited storage space and capacity to traverse the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of global oil supply normally flows, according to the IEA. The agency said that without the rapid resumption of shipping, supply losses are expected to increase.
Brent crude prices are also unlikely to fall below $70 to $75 per barrel even if there's an imminent end to the war in the Middle East, according to TD Securities. Brent settled at $72.87 at barrel on February 27, the day before the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran.