What happens if assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines are banned?
A push for stricter gun laws in Minnesota is not new. However, this session comes on the heels of a devastating mass shooting last summer in which the target was students in prayer at Annunciation Catholic School in Minneapolis.
The suspected shooter was armed with several guns, including an assault-style rifle. One of the victim's parents implored lawmakers to ban such weapons.
"There's an opportunity here to slow down the carnage between that first shot and the approach of the first responder," said Harry Kaiser, father of Annunciation shooting survivor Lydia Kaiser.
Eleven states in the U.S. and Washington, D.C. have banned assault-style weapons. Colorado also has a ban that takes effect this year. All of them, plus three more states, have also banned high-capacity magazines.
The goal with these bans is to reduce the number of mass shootings and the number of victims when one occurs. So, what happens when assault-style weapons and high-capacity magazines are banned?
Andrew Morral investigated this topic extensively for RAND, a research nonprofit. He helped author RAND's detailed report, The Science of Gun Policy, analyzing several studies and available data.
"There is some limited evidence that they might reduce the incidents of mass shootings or the number of fatalities in mass shootings," Morral said. "The high-capacity magazine ban that often accompanies these laws does seem like it would reduce the number of bullets that can be shot in a short period of time."
There was a time when assault-style weapons were banned nationwide, from 1994 to 2004. One study found that after the ban expired, the number of high-fatality mass shootings per year tripled and the number of deaths quadrupled.
Another study that analyzed the federal ban determined it helped prevent 11 public mass shootings, while estimating the ban could prevent at least 30 mass shootings had it remained in place from 2005-2019.
Morral questioned whether the drop in mass shootings is fully attributable to the federal ban.
"There was also a reduction in the number of handgun murders, and that probably isn't because of the assault weapon ban. And there was a reduction, dramatic reduction in the number of rapes and other violent crimes. So, it's hard to say with confidence that it was the assault weapon ban that was responsible for those reductions," he said.
Despite the studies that concluded the bans could lead to fewer mass shootings, there are also studies that found assault-style weapons bans did not reduce the number of mass shootings. And that access to the guns remained possible, whether they were grandfathered in prior to a ban going into place or purchased in a non-ban state.
"And then of course the firearm industry modified the weapons that were banned in ways that made them no longer banned, and then started selling them again," he said.
To get around manufacturing bans, gun makers often move their operations, including workers, to more gun-friendly states. Smith and Wesson left Massachusetts in 2021 for Tennessee. Magpul, which makes high-capacity magazines, left Colorado for Wyoming in 2014.
As states like Minnesota debate if these bans will become law, Morral hopes more research is done to understand their impact.
"Between 1996 and 2018, the federal government wasn't paying for any research on this topic. And so, we are stuck looking at a fairly limited amount of literature on this topic," he said.
Congress ended the federal freeze on gun research a few years ago. Since then, it has allocated $25 million a year to study gun violence. The agencies conducting the research are the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institute of Health.