Potential tropical storm could impact Florida this week
MIAMI -- Our unusual Hurricane Season continues with a late rally in the Tropical Atlantic. I have been watching what is now an area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles north of Puerto Rico. It is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms.
As I've said before, I don't like anything "disorganized" east of FL moving in our general direction during hurricane season. Why?
1. Because it is difficult to forecast an end point when you don't have a starting one.
2. The messaging can get confusing because of the large range of possibilities.
So, I will tell you what I know right now.
The chances of seeing impacts from this developing system in south FL are not 0-100%, they are more like 75-100%.
The intensity of those impacts is what I can't nail down until we have more model data.
I am still favoring the weaker wind field solution where a broader tropical or subtropical storm develops.
It has been the consistent solution from both the EURO and even the US GFS.
The latter has a weaker wind field as well from the upcoming, yet still experimental, version of the GFS.
Think of it as an unofficial beta version. While not operational. it shouldn't be ignored.
While the magnitude of the impacts are still not in detail we can certainly plan for the following from Tuesday through Thursday and early Friday:
- Increasing risk of coastal flooding
- Tropical-storm-force winds
- Heavy rainfall, flooding
- Rough surf, and beach erosion
The possibility of a stronger and more compact tropical storm or hurricane is also in play.
In fact, don't be surprised if hurricane and storm surge watches go up for parts of our coast as soon as Monday for a mid to late week impact.
While there is still room for things to change, let's plan for the more intense weather impact scenario and not focus just on locations of cones once we get them.
Review your hurricane preps and stay tuned to our NEXT Weather forecasts. They will become much clearer soon.