Is the end of the Cuban regime near? Former U.S. ambassador under Biden says change won't happen quickly
While many in Miami believe the end of the Cuban regime is near, it is not clear what will happen next.
Frank Mora, the former U.S Ambassador to the Organization of American States under the Biden administration, cautions that dramatic change is unlikely to happen quickly.
"This is a very complex and uncertain moment," Mora told CBS Miami's Jim DeFede. "We really haven't seen this in a while, a situation like this where the regime is so weak and so vulnerable. But I keep arguing that in a sense, the idea that you can strangle an economy and contribute to the humanitarian disaster, which let's admit was started by the Cuban regime itself, that that somehow would lead to change is unprecedented."
"Now, I think it's clear from [Secretary of State] Marco Rubio's statements that he's not seeking regime change in the short term, that what he is seeking is concessions from the regime to embark on a process of economic reform that could ultimately lead to a political change," Mora said.
Mora noted that the Trump administration does not want the total collapse of the Cuban government because it could prompt an exodus of refugees from the island to the United States. He said it was telling that the Trump administration, after placing a complete embargo preventing oil from being sent to the island, is now letting some oil shipments in.
"That tells me that the Administration is concerned that if there is really no oil or no way in which people can move and do their business on the island, that that could create a humanitarian disaster," he said. "So, they're creating those conditions to avoid humanitarian disaster. And on the Cuban side, I think they're looking at Venezuela and trying to take lessons from that. That is to say, what concessions can we give Washington, perhaps in the economic realm, that will satisfy, please the administration, maybe allow Donald Trump to declare victory, while remaining in power. That might be what they're learning in Cuba about how to proceed with the United States."
Mora said he understands why people in Miami believe the end of the Cuban regime is coming within a matter of days or weeks, but he would caution that this is not likely.
"We have to be humble in our analysis because this is really quite a volatile and uncertain moment, and things can go awry," he said. "And I think the administration recognizes that. This is not something that's going to happen overnight. This is going to be a long process. There's going to be a lot of frustrations and unmet expectations from folks in South Florida. So, we have be a little patient, and be ready to navigate in uncertainty."