CSU Forecasts Three Hurricanes, One Major This Year

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MIAMI (CBSMiami) - For those who dread the annual Atlantic hurricane season, there's some good news.

At the National Tropical Weather Conference in South Padre Island, Texas, Dr. Phil Klotzbach from Colorado State University issued his team's first official forecast for this year.

Klotzbach told the gathering that they expect a below average hurricane season with seven named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.

If the forecast holds, CBS4 meteorologist John Gerard said there's less of a probability of a landfalling hurricane across the U.S., the Gulf and the Caribbean. Gerard added that just because the numbers are smaller than those in forecasts over the last few years it only takes one, so everyone still needs to be mindful of the season and be prepared.

Last week at the National Hurricane Conference in Austin, Texas, Klotzbach said in preparing their forecast there were several factors noted that could reduce the overall number of hurricanes in the Atlantic this season.

"First of all, El Niño is going to be present during the hurricane season. El Niño is warmer than normal waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific. What that does is increase the upper level westerly winds that tear apart storms trying to form in the Atlantic," said Klotzbach.

The most southern track of the jet stream in an El Niño season allows for the southern United States to see above-average rainfall which would be good news for drought-stricken areas from California to Texas.

In South Florida, residents need to be on guard for the potential for an active severe weather season beginning earlier than usual especially in April and May.

Atlantic Ocean conditions will also play a major role this year.

"The tropical Atlantic is also somewhat cooler than normal this year. Cooler than normal water means less fuel for the storms, higher pressures and a more stable atmosphere that tends to suppress the storm activity that hurricanes need to thrive," said Klotzbach.

Over the last 30 years, CSU forecasters have considered an average hurricane season to consist of 12 tropical storms, six to seven hurricanes of which three become major hurricanes reaching at least a Category 3 status on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale.

The 2014 Atlantic hurricane season was below-average with nine tropical cyclones and eight named storms, the fewest named storms since 1997.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1st through November 30th.