Wait -- Did Justin Upton Actually Earn His Keep In 2016?
By Will Burchfield
Twitter: @burchie_kid
It's easy to reflect on Justin Upton's first season with the Tigers and call it a disappointment. It's easy to size up his six-year, $132,750,000 contract and consider him a bust. When a player receives that much money - over $22 million per year - we expect All Star-caliber numbers in return.
But maybe that's where we're wrong.
Besides the fact that it's foolish to evaluate players based on their contracts, it's possible that the standards we attach to a $22 million salary are unrealistic.
Based on average annual salary, Upton ($22,125,000) was MLB's 14th highest-paid position player in 2016. 18 such players made between $20 million and $25 million last season, with Matt Kemp ($20 million) setting the lower bound and Yoenis Cespedes ($25 million) setting the upper bound. Let's combine their statistics and translate the averages into "Player X." His numbers are below.
Player X: 24.6 HR/86.2 RBI/.799 OPS/2.45 offensive-WAR*
Keep that in mind.
Now let's narrow the field to position players whose average annual salary fell within $1 million of Upton's in 2016, on either side of the line. That leaves us with eight players, with Jacoby Ellsbury ($21,857,143) setting the lower bound and Jason Heyward ($23 million) setting the upper bound. Let's translate their averages into "Player Y."
Player Y: 19.6 HR/83.4 RBI/.771 OPS/2.0 offensive-WAR
And here, by comparison, are Upton's numbers.
Upton: 31 HR/87 RBI/.775 OPS/2.0 offensive-WAR
Whoa. Is it possible that Upton actually exceeded the standards of his contract in 2016? From an offensive standpoint, it'd be hard to argue otherwise. Based on the average production of his most immediate financial peers, Upton earned every penny the Tigers paid him.
There are asterisks and caveats to all this, of course. For one, by only considering Upton's offensive numbers we're ignoring his shortcomings in left field. For another, the averages produced above were weighed down by players like Prince Fielder, who retired midseason, and Mark Teixeira, who played in just 116 games. And there's probably some fallibility in comparing Upton, a free-swinging power hitter, to contact-inclined batters like Ellsbury and Joe Mauer.
Still.
The market is the market.
And last year, at least, the market said $22,125,000 was accountable for something close to 20 HR, 85 RBI, a .770 OPS and a 2.0 offensive-WAR. In that vein, it's very hard to knock Upton for his production at the plate.
Again: 31 HR/87 RBI/.775 OPS/2.0 offensive-WAR.
Might the Tigers still wish they hadn't saddled themselves with Upton's massive contract? Sure - especially given their changing business model. But Upton wasn't wildly overpaid in 2016, certainly not to the extent that some people were suggesting. If anything, he represented a fair return on their investment.
Now - who's willing to trade for him???
*per baseball-reference.com