Worst snowpack on record could spell consequences in Colorado mountains, but not too late for relief

Colorado's mountain snowpack is off to its slowest start in decades, and the ramifications that could come with that dry start could be felt for years to come if something doesn't change. 

According to Denver Water, the snowpack above Dillon is currently the lowest it has been for this point in the season since record keeping began in the late 1970s.

Snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin above Dillon is sitting at about 46% of the typical average. That's roughly 2.8 inches of snow water equivalent (SWE) the amount of water that would be produced if the snow melted instantly. Typically, that number would be closer to 6 inches by midwinter, according to Denver Water.

"It's the worst it's been in more than half a century," said Nathan Elder, manager of water supply for Denver Water.

The impacts of the warm and dry start are visible to the naked eye. At Dillon Reservoir, portions of the lake remain unfrozen heading into January, an unusual sight for Summit County. 

Despite the distressing records, water managers pointed out the season is far from over. Historically, Colorado only builds about 20% of its total snowpack between October and the end of December, leaving the potential for 80% of this season's accumulation ahead.

"February, March and April are typically our snowiest months," Elder said. "We will need those to really come through for us."

Data from past seasons show that recovery is possible. Elder pointed to the winters of 1999-2000 and 2012-2013, which both started with slow accumulation before finishing near normal levels. But Denver Water officials caution that not every year rebounds, and some dry starts have led directly into drought conditions.

"A huge portion of Denver's water supply and the supply in Colorado relies on snowpack runoff in the spring," Elder said.

There is one modest bright spot in the data. Denver Water reports that reservoirs across the system are currently 83% full, slightly below the typical 87% average for this time of year, but still considered stable given the circumstances.  

If snow totals remain low, communities could feel the impacts next year, especially as demand rises during warmer months. That's why Denver Water is encouraging residents to begin preparing now for an eventuality it hopes never comes to pass. 

"You can start preparing for potential drought conditions, making landscapes more resilient and planning landscape transformations," Elder said.