Widespread drought grips western Colorado

According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor Western Colorado is still classified in severe to extreme drought. 

"We only expect to see drought this bad once every twenty years," says Peter Goble, Assistant State Climatologist with the Colorado Climate Center at Colorado State University, describing the intensity and rarity of current conditions. "What has set up this drought in particular is a below‑normal snowpack season in southwest Colorado, accompanied by a drier than normal spring and a very hot, dry summer."

Much of western Colorado experienced one of the top ten warmest summers on record. Portions of that same area also recorded one of the top ten driest summers ever documented. These conditions drove stream flows to record lows, particularly in the White River, and led to very dry vegetation. Those dry fuels and low moisture primed the region for large wildfires. One of the most destructive was the Lee Fire, now thankfully contained, which grew to become one of Colorado's largest fires on record. 

"The best drought to compare this drought to would be the 2020 drought, but I don't think it's been quite as bad as the 2020 drought and not as widespread," Goble says.

Some relief may be on the way. Meaningful moisture is expected to move into Colorado Thursday and Friday, especially in southwest Colorado, where 1 to 2 inches of rainfall are possible. 

"Every bit helps for some areas that will make a big deal of improvement, but there are high‑elevation areas of our mountains in western Colorado that are as much as ten inches below normal for the last 12 months. That's unlikely to be made up in one storm, and you don't want to see that much moisture in one storm, so we hope to make incremental improvements in the weeks to come," Goble explains.

Looking ahead, fall and winter bring uncertainty. According to Goble, forecasts suggest a La Niña pattern developing, meaning cooler‑than‑normal sea surface temperatures. That tends to favor healthier snowpack up in the northern Rockies, but for the southern Rockies, La Niña winters often bring drier conditions. If that pattern holds through spring, many parts of Colorado may remain below normal in precipitation.

Goble suggests everyone should be careful with water use and watch for burn bans if you're recreating in the high country. Dry vegetation and human activity are a dangerous combo.