Local News

Coronavirus Outbreak: Centura Health CEO Calls Weeks Ahead 'Critically Important'

April 6, 2020 / 10:12 PM MDT / CBS Colorado

CENTENNIAL, Colo. (CBS4) - In a statement Monday, the President and CEO of Centura Health called the next few weeks "critically important" in the fight against coronavirus. Peter D. Banko said internal forecasting and modeling at Centura reveals the statewide stay-at-home order is slowing the spread of the virus.

St. Anthony's Hospital in Lakewood (credit: CBS)

"Our independent assessment supports the statements provided by officials from the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment earlier this afternoon," stated Banko. "It is important to note that Colorado is also faring well to date because we have a healthier, younger, and less dense population relative to epicenters across the United States."

CDPHE received additional modeling results from a group of local experts from the Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado School of Medicine at the CU Anschutz Medical Campus, as well as experts from the University of Colorado Boulder and University of Colorado Denver. The model results show that with physical distancing, the spread of COVID-19 has slowed in Colorado, but case counts are still increasing.

COVID-19 cases through March 31 (data provided by CDPHE). The best-fit curve, showing social distancing efficacy of 45% starting March 17 (green line) and a curve showing no social distancing (red line) are shown. Due to lags in reporting, making the most recent days unstable, we fit the model to case reports and hospitalizations with an onset date of March 26 or earlier.

Banko said the state's response through the month of April will be paramount to prevent a surge in patients at hospitals. Centura still expects to see a significant increase of critically ill patients with respiratory symptoms who will require extended hospitalization and ventilation.

"In the next two weeks and at least through the end of April (or early May), we will be challenged in ways we haven't been before, and it will require us to come together as an organization, with our fellow health systems, and as a community like never before," Banko stated.

As of Monday, 14 of the 17 Centura hospitals are caring for presumptive positive patients. Centura hospitals are currently using:

203 intensive care beds
552 medical/surgical beds
96 negative pressure isolation beds
112 ventilators

Banko said the hospitals are preparing for a surge in patients by partnering with vendors along with federal and state agencies to increase access to personal protective equipment, medication and beds.

"Despite the temptations after a few positive days, we must stay the course on the proactive, statewide efforts put into place by Governor Polis and his team. We must personally continue to practice social distancing and stay at home," stated Banko. "Each of these sacrifices is helping to get Colorado on the other side of the curve and protect the health and well-being of each and every one of us, especially the more vulnerable populations."

Centura forecasting was developed using case counts by state, growth rates by state since their first 100 cases, demographics and population densities, testing efforts, state intervention efforts, virus growth rate trajectories, virus death rates, and the impact in other countries. It was then compared with a variety of available COVID-19 models from leading industry and internal experts.