Summer Heat And El Nino
Boston's maximum temperature yesterday failed to attain 90 degrees again. The atmosphere supported 91 for the high but it is possible that residual smoke from the Canadian wildfires plus a rather wet ground from recent rains contributed to the failure. In any event, the wait for the first 90-degree day of the season continues.
Note in the SST Anomaly Map above the ribbon of heat in the equatorial central and eastern Pacific indicative of a rather strong El Nino. How is this El Nino going to impact our changing weather here in the Northeast? The impact should be minimal this summer but 2016 could be a different story. At this time, this is a strong El Nino but according to Joe D'Aleo and Joe Bastardi of WeatherBell, it is about half as strong as the very strong El Nino of 1997-98 but stronger than the moderate El Nino of 2009-10.
Can we conclude that next summer will be a very hot one like 1988 or 1983? Not necessarily. The strength of the El Nino does not always dictate the magnitude of the summer heat here in New England. While El Nino can be a huge driver in our climate, there are other global factors that must be examined to determine which ones will rule or trump the others. It is a complex mix of sets and subsets composed of a myriad of atmospheric and oceanic oscillations.
For now, it appears that Boston will not have any 90-degree days until the last 7-10 days of the month. Present clues suggest that the mean temperature for August and September will be close to a bit below average but that doesn't mean there couldn't be a few days at 90 or higher. I will stick with my projection revealed back in April that Boston would have around 8-12 days at 90 or higher through September. We shall see.
In the short term, the humidity will be high right into Wednesday with drier air taking over Thursday through Saturday. There will be some showers and a few boomers scattered around especially on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Presently, the threat of severe weather seems low this week.
Make it a great week!