Has it really been an unusually cold winter in Boston? Here's what the numbers show.
Has this been the coldest winter ever in Boston?
Boston has been below freezing (32 degrees) since 5 p.m. on Jan. 23. That is well over 200 hours and the longest below-freezing stretch in the city in eight years.
It sure seems like the cold has been unrelenting and unusual, so, what's the deal? And, when might we turn things around? Let's start by digging into the numbers.
Boston's cold by the numbers
Boston has been keeping weather records for a little more than 150 years, a pretty good sample size when compared to other major cities.
Here is how this winter has stacked up:
December
Average temperature: 31.3 degrees
4.4 degrees below average
23 of 31 days were below average
This was the 46th coldest December since records began and the coldest December in Boston since 2017.
January
Average temperature: 28 degrees
1.9 degrees below average
18 of 31 days were below average
This was the 58th coldest January since records began and the coldest January since 2022.
December and January together
Average temperature: 29.6 degrees
47th coldest on record
Coldest since 2004
The overwhelming takeaway is that it really hasn't been *that* cold compared to an average Boston winter. However, there are a couple of major *buts* with that statement.
Colder than recent years
Sure, if you look strictly at the numbers and stats, taken over a century and a half, it would appear that this winter was only slightly colder than average. But we may be suffering from recency bias.
When you compare this winter to say, the last 25 years, it looks much different.
This December-January was tied with 2018 for coldest since the winter of 2003-2004. So, if you were born in the last few decades or moved here in the last 20 years or so, this would indeed be tied for the coldest December-January that you have ever endured in Boston.
Even more recently, let's just look at the last cold wave which started around Jan. 23. The last 10 days in Boston, Jan. 23-Feb 1., was the coldest stretch (for those particular days) since 1961.
Bottom line, we have had some very mild winters in the last couple of decades. It's likely this has, in some ways, made us forget what a real, cold New England winter feels like. All those stories your parents would tell about their treacherous walks to and from the bus stop amid snowstorms and bitter cold - now you can relate.
When will it get warmer in Boston?
Let's start with the immediate short-term, this week: A definite improvement from last week, but still below average each day by 5-10 degrees. Temperatures could get as warm as 34 degrees on Tuesday.
How about a medium range outlook, say 6-10 days: More of the same, warm in the western U.S. and cold in the East thanks in large part to another Arctic blast coming this weekend.
The 8-14 day outlook and the outlook for the full month of February ... ditto.
You can bet that February will finish below average, making that the fourth straight month going back to November in Boston.
For once we agree with the groundhogs that predicted six more weeks of winter today.
On a positive note: Our sun will be setting after 5 p.m. in Boston starting Tuesday.
Also, in just 34 short days, we "spring ahead" to Daylight Saving Time.
Hang in there, New England.