How much snow will Boston get this winter? See the outlook for 2025-2026
What will winter deliver in New England? There's sure to be snow, sleet, rain and everything in between. But to take a closer look at how much and why, we turn to our team of experts - the WBZ Next Weather team.
If you're like many families, winter will probably come up at the Thanksgiving table on Thursday. "Did you hear about the polar vortex? What a great start to ski season! Winter has been so lame lately…will it finally snow again?"
We would like to add some fuel to your holiday fire by sharing our annual winter outlook.
The usual disclaimers apply: These are educated guesses, not gospel. There's a collection of variables that can help point to the theme of the season. Most years, it works out well. For a few, it completely busts sending us back to school to figure out why. But every year it's fun to try to read Mother Nature's tea leaves (Just don't run to Kalshi to place your life savings on it).
Without any more hesitation, let's give it a whirl! This year we focus on two main topics. One is the stratosphere, and the other simply the cyclical nature of weather.
Understanding the polar vortex
You don't need to be a meteorologist to tell you which way the wind blows, but you may need one to describe these more technical winter factors. Both occur way up above our heads, in the stratosphere.
Everyone's heard of the polar vortex by now, but here's a quick refresher. There are actually two of them. Down low, in the layer where our weather happens — the troposphere — we've got what most people simply call the jet stream. The jet stream marks the boundary of the tropospheric polar vortex, with the real deal frigid stuff on the north side of it (in our hemisphere) and milder air to the south of it.
But there's a second one, a companion vortex way higher up — about 10 to 30 miles above us in the stratosphere. It revs up in the fall, slows down in the spring, and usually blows west to east just like its counterpart down below.
Now here's where things get wild. The atmosphere behaves a lot like water, so think waves — big, slow, planet-sized waves. During a sudden stratospheric warming event, one of these waves pushes north toward the pole and breaks in the stratosphere. As it crashes down, air sinks and rapidly warms — sometimes by 100 degrees in just a few days. That can shove the polar vortex off the pole or even split it apart.
Weak vortex winter
When the warming is strong enough, it totally rearranges the temperature balance up there. The winds don't just weaken — they reverse direction. Instead of blowing west to east, they turn around and blow east to west. And when the vortex weakens like that, it has a habit of letting Arctic air spill southward into the places where most of us actually live. The effects can linger for a month or more.
That is what's on the fringe of occurring this week (the very end of November). We've been watching to see if the winds will reverse direction, and it's a nail-biter. During the final weekend of the month, it will either barely meet the criteria or hold a touch above.
Regardless, the impacts may not be very different either way. The overall atmospheric pattern favors a weak vortex this winter, which should allow for several of these close calls which we often refer to as "stretched vortex events." During each of these, cold air can descend down into the mid-latitudes where we live.
Comparing to winter of 1968
The last time we saw one this early was way back in November 1968 — and New England went on to have a very cold, snowy winter. There was record-breaking snow in the northern New England mountains, and more seasonable levels of snow (though with plenty of cold) in southern New England.
But — and this part's important — a SSW doesn't guarantee a blockbuster winter every time. There's usually a lag of at least a couple of weeks before anything reaches the surface. Still, the odds go up. So, as we look toward mid-December into January, the door is opening for some potentially significant winter weather. And compared to some of our quiet winters of late, it could mark quite a departure for us.
The QBO, or Quasi-biennial Oscillation, is similar but at the same time slightly different. Like the vortex, it spins up in the stratosphere. But it is located above the tropics, and its direction changes every couple of years, give or take a couple months. Right now, we have a -QBO, meaning that it is in the easterly phase.
When in this phase, the QBO favors a weaker polar vortex, which we're already seeing, and colder than average conditions across the central and eastern U.S. It also tends to favor drier winters for us, though there is some variability.
You can think of the QBO and polar vortex as two currents when it comes to planetary wind. When they're going against the flow, we tend to get bigger jet stream dips and more cold outbreaks.
La Nina and the Pacific Ocean
Every year we also look at what ENSO phase we are in, and once again this year it is La Nina. It features a stripe of cooler than average water in the equatorial Pacific. This one is expected to be a weak event that fades away later in the season, but I do believe it will help reinforce the idea of a front-loaded cold type of winter. La Nina years often get cold faster and have more cold air outbreaks in the central and northern states. For this season, I think it just builds on the overall expected pattern theme.
To add on top of this, there's a feature called the MJO, or Madden-Julian Oscillation. It's a way of mapping out were tropical convection (rain and wind) are, and it runs on a cycle of 30-60 days as the pulses of rising air and convection travel east around the globe and then return to the starting point.
The MJO is expected to be in phases that strongly support cold air around these parts from December to perhaps early January, and you can just add it to the other indicators pointing toward potentially significant cold outbreaks during that time.
Snowfall: this won't go on forever
Quite frankly, I believe in mean reversion more than almost all these variables. Meaning that things balance out over time. Earth is wonderful at seeking and effecting balance. Every year in which I write these, I marvel at how the average amount of snowfall in Boston has barely budged for at least a couple hundred years. Think about all the chaos in the atmosphere, and whenever we average out a 30-year period it's almost always within a few inches of the previous 30-year period.
Now we can talk about how the way we get snowfall has changed (often coming in bigger chunks/more boom and bust) or how the amount of time with snow on the ground has changed (less snowpack time as winters have warmed), but in general a similar amount over a smoothed period will still fall.
In the 2008-2018 stretch, we had an obscene number of gigantic snowstorms. It was the snowiest 10-year stretch on record, while featuring the most notorious stretch of snow anyone currently alive has witnessed here (in 2014-15).
Because nature doesn't just keep doing things like that, it has immediately been followed by the second least snowy 10-year stretch on record. Boston is coming up on 2nd place for longest stretch without a 6" + snowfall, had the least snowy back-to-back winters on record, and is currently in the least snowy three-winter stretch on record
But again, nature doesn't just keep doing things like that.
So perhaps the best argument for a snowier and colder winter is just "it's time for the pendulum to swing back."
The verdict!
To put a bow on it, here's where the WBZ Next Weather team is placing our bets.
I think we have a good shot for a colder than average winter overall, and I don't do this often. Most of our winters are warmer than average, as it is the fastest warming season in New England. I don't call for colder than average unless I think there is good supporting reason, and I think it's there this winter. December and January have the best odds, while February may try to warm up in comparison.
How much snow?
As for snow, let's go for 55"-65" of snow in Boston, and 75"-85" of snow in Worcester.
While the coldest air relative to average may be in December through mid-January, I think some of our biggest snows could come in the second half as the pattern relaxes somewhat.
Now we build a fire and watch how the next several months play out. My advice for any winter? Sure, it's dark and cold, but the best way to beat it is to lean into it. Bundle up, get outside, and work with whatever nature decides to send our way.