WEATHER BLOG: Spotty Showers

We're clearly seeing a few signs today that "Spring is just around the corner", while at the same time, "Winter may not be done with us just yet. With a west to southwesterly wind flow today, we should have no trouble returning to the 60s even with our sunshine /mix with clouds. Just like yesterday, another round of showers are erupting this afternoon -- most of which will originate in the higher elevations / across the northern and central Appalachians. These showers will then drift towards the I-95 corridor and the coast this evening, and might be accompanied by some thunder and lightning. Today will be the mildest day of the forecast period, but a progressively chillier pattern will begin to unfold tonight and tomorrow.

Tomorrow will bring more in the way of clouds, a gusty wind and a few scattered showers to the region. Also, afternoon temperatures will be mainly in the lower and middle 50s. As a trough of low pressure aloft digs into the Northeast tomorrow night and Saturday, it'll turn even colder. While Saturday is expected to be a fairly sunny day, most temperatures will be no higher than the mid 40s. This leads us to the Saturday night / Sunday time frames, when things can become 'very interesting' in the mid-Atlantic states and along the Northeast Coast. In addition to the upper-level trough injecting some colder air, the global models still are showing us that a storm system should begin to take shape near the Carolina Coast. While the solutions of both the G.F.S. and the European vary, each of these indicates any rain will begin to blossom over Maryland and Virginia Saturday night. The critical thickness line (540 decameters) between 500 millibars and the surface is also suggesting that our environment may be cold enough to support snow. As is frequently the case during this time of year, the potential for wet snowfall will be largely dependent on elevation, the precipitation's intensity and also what time of day (or night) it occurs.

Therefore, we must make it clear that if recent runs of the European (and its synoptics) are correct, and a wave of low pressure strengthens late on Sunday and Sunday night as it moves along a path just east of the Jersey Shore -- a cold rain in many of the larger, Eastern cities which starts on Sunday could mix with or even change to a period of heavy, wet snow on Sunday night before it ends early Monday morning (before daybreak everywhere but in southern and eastern New England). Temperatures on Sunday, which should be 'marginal' when it comes to forecasting rain or snow, will be in the lower 40°s, but should fall into the low and mid-30s on Sunday night. The obvious irony is: Spring officially arrives" at 12:30 a.m. EDT on Sunday. So, Spring may start with a significant snow event in parts of the Northeast and mid-Atlantic states late this weekend, and then temperatures will probably start to 'bounce back' again by the middle of next week.