WEATHER BLOG: Blizzard 2016
It appears that the storm has indeed gone a bit further north, and is rather impressive. Significant convective banding is occurring all along the northern half of the storm, with pockets of very heavy snow. Right now the big I-95 cities are all looking on track despite the shift, except up near NYC, where the northern budge has put the 1 foot mark in question. Convective banding in coastal New Jersey and eastern PA are also contributing to some over production there in the early going.
As we go on throughout this storm, the advertised impacts are not changing, regardless of an extra few inches of snow. It's all insult to injury once you're beyond a foot. Winds are still expected to lead to major issues with blowing and drifting. Also, for coastal areas, the high tide could not have come at a worse time, with the Full Moon on Saturday when the strongest onshore wind will take place. At the end of the day, Virginia, West Virginia, Maryland, Delaware, eastern Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and downstate New York will be in difficulty for the entire weekend. This storm will set records and be remembered for many years to come.
After ravaging the coast, the system will be working off the coast on Saturday night and the carnage will be coming to an end. An upper ridge over the central US and high pressure over the Southeast will boot the system offshore and own the pattern through Monday afternoon. The next system, an upper trough, will dive into the Plains on Monday night and push a system east into the area.
Tuesday will be warm right ahead of the approaching front, with a few prefrontal showers. Following the front a change to colder is expected, but really not much below normal. Dry again behind the front until Thursday night or Friday. Unfortunately we really need to watch for another system late week into next weekend again. While this system right now seriously lacks cold, we are dependent on an upper shortwave being late and the timing of the northern branch is known to be very unreliable this far out. This system will be worth watching, as Friday could be messy…