Maryland Weather: The Latest Update On The Potential For Wintry Precipitation Wednesday

BALTIMORE (WJZ) -- The WJZ Weather team has been closely monitoring the potential for wintry precipitation as we head into Wednesday. There have been some changes in recent numeric weather prediction that show a downward trend in moisture availability and overall precipitation amounts.

All the models are showing a bit of very light flurries or even rain showers during the 5 a.m. to 8 a.m. time period on Wednesday. No impact is expected in the Baltimore region at this time. A very small bit of snow could accumulate on the lawns for a brief time before temperatures rise well above freezing by mid or late morning.

The GFS model has shown the most significant change with model output. On Monday, the model was suggesting that nearly 4 inches of snow was possible in the Baltimore area, and it has significantly backed off today, now showing less than 1 inch of potential accumulation. This model has been the outlier over the past several days and model runs, and we are happy to see it trending more in line with other computer models in the "less than 1 inch" category.


The graphic below represents two pieces of energy that we have been monitoring over the past couple of days. The northern piece of jet stream energy is trending weaker. This weaker trend and timing with the southern jet stream energy has lead us to lower the snow threat for tonight and tomorrow. Unfortunately, this is less than a cut-and-dry forecast with discrepancies on the timing and track of these two very important players in the game. At this juncture, a few snow showers are still possible tomorrow morning and afternoon. As temperatures warm, it is likely that any snow shower will begin to mix with rain.


Here are some key takeaways with this precipitation event:
-This really looking like a minor-to-no impact event for us in central Maryland.
-If accumulations do occur, they will be less than 1 inch, and it's entirely possible that some areas trend completely dry.
-While there could be some slick spots north and west on untreated roads, most roads stay wet rather than white.