Battleground State Profile: Missouri

State Data:

2008 Primary Results:

Barack Obama: 49%

Hillary Clinton: 48%

John McCain: 33%

Mike Huckabee: 32%

Mit Romney: 29%

2004 Election Results:

George W. Bush: 53.30%

John Kerry: 46.10%

2000 Election Results:

George W. Bush: 50.42%

John Kerry: 47.08%

Racial Breakdown:

White: 83.8%

Black: 11.2%

Hispanic: 2.1%

Other: 2.9%


Under 25k: 31.7%

25-50k: 31.8%

50-100k: 27.7%

Over 100k: 8.7%


Less than H.S.: 18.6%

H.S. or Higher: 81.3%

BA or Higher: 21.6%

Grad/Prof Deg: 7.6%

Who do you think will win Missouri?

John McCain

Barack Obama


Political watchers have come to believe that as goes Missouri, so goes the presidency: The state has picked presidential winner but one since 1900, according to the Almanac of American Politics. (The exception: 1956.) Voters in the state chose President Bush by 7 points in 2004, and chose Mr. Bush by 3 points in 2000.

Both John McCain and Barack Obama narrowly edged out rivals Mike Huckabee and Hillary Clinton, respectively, in the state's Super Tuesday primary. (Turnout was far higher on the Democratic side.) Obama appears to have a built-in advantage by virtue of hailing from neighboring Illinois, but that may not be enough in the show-me state.

The state has picked presidential winner but one since 1900, according to the Almanac of American Politics.

One encouraging sign for the Illinois senator: In the state's 2006 Senate race, Democrat Claire McCaskill upset Republican Jim Talent on the strength of her appeal to the urban base Obama that needs to galvanize to have any chance of taking the state.

CBS Evening News: Economy Big Factor In Bellwether Missouri

Ways To Win

Predict A Winner

Make picks for each state to build a path to electoral college victory.

Related Missouri Campaign Stories

Poll Averages

Real Clear Politics averages recent polls from a wide number of media sources, including some not recognized or used by CBS News, and shows the average lead of the top candidate.

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