The Hunt for a Red November
Anybody who tuned into HBO on Sunday expecting to see "The Sopranos" -- but got "Bury My Heart At Wounded Knee" instead -- might have gotten a glimpse of the future. Fred Thompson – the cause celebre celeb of current GOP politics – appeared in the drama as President Ulysses S. Grant. And now (bada bing! to those suffering Sopranos withdrawal) Thompson has announced he is unofficially making it official (maybe) and launching an investigative committee to "test the waters" about a presidential bid. He may make it officially official around Independence Day, but it all depends on how the investigating goes. Or something.
In any event, as is the case with all such pseudo-announcements, the immediate coverage follows the At Whose Expense breadcrumbs:
Thompson's candidacy could hurt [Mitt] Romney, who is trying to position himself to the right of the major candidates in the field despite his equivocations on various issues and outright position changes on others.So there you have it, plain as day: If Thompson decides to run, it will either hurt Romney, McCain or Giuliani. (Won't anybody think of Ron Paul?)It's also possible that Thompson could pull support from McCain. They have similar records in the Senate, and Thompson could be seen as a fresher face. He was one of a handful of senators who backed McCain in 2000 over George W. Bush.
Giuliani could be hindered as well if Thompson grabs the attention of Republicans who are looking for a candidate to beat Democrats in the fall but are uneasy with the former New York City mayor's support for gay and abortion rights.
When word got out that Thompson was going to start "testing the waters," the Romney camp immediately sent their man out to face the challenge head-on -- and torture the "water" analogy as well:
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, one of the leading Republican candidates, said today that potential GOP rival Fred Thompson is "a fine man."Beyond the costs and benefits, however, there are a number of questions about Thompson, most likely how his Hollywood persona will adapt to realm of presidential politics. (It did, of course, work out all right for one of the stars of "Cattle Queen Of Montana.")The former U.S. senator from Tennessee is preparing to launch an exploratory campaign in July, according to media reports.
"All I can say is, 'Come on in, the water's fine,' " Romney said in a Des Moines interview.
The Politico, which broke the story, included this less-than-ringing appraisal:
Supporters realize the potential liabilities: the late start after many endorsements; donors and activists have been locked up by other candidates; a reputation for an aversion to hard work; his non-Hodgkin's lymphoma, a form of cancer; and a bear-like physique that makes him look his 64 years.That's a lot of obstacles, but the doozy of the critical press was offered up by none other than the Republican thermometer himself, Robert Novak, in a piece about Thompson's May 4th speech:
"It was not Reaganesque." "No red meat." "Too low key." That was the preponderant reaction I heard to Thompson's half-hour presentation (leavened by a few favorable comments, mostly by women, that he was more "statesmanlike" and "presidential" than the announced candidates). Lincoln Club members, like many conservative Republicans, have been unimpressed by the existing field of Republican hopefuls and envisioned Thompson as the second coming of Ronald Reagan. They did not get it Friday night.One interesting media-related angle on the Thompson candidacy came out of his conversation with USA Today:
Politician-turned-actor Fred Thompson plans an unconventional campaign for president using blogs, video posts and other Internet innovations to reach voters repelled by politics-as-usual in both parties.This, readers, is where the Thompson campaign may hit pay dirt. The Democrats have shown their ability to rally grassroots support in the liberal marketplace through new technologies. Thompson could corner the new media market on the right through his performance skills. (Won't be a stretch. IMDB says he's played three presidents already.)
Most of the blocking and tackling in the Republican field thus far has been over name recognition and brand identity – or as Admiral Stockdale would put it, "Who am I? Why am I here?" But Thompson's delay has not cost him political support in those departments. If anything, the intrigue surrounding him has been a boost – he's been polling in the double digits without lifting a finger thus far. If he can make his mark through clever use of the media, he may become a serious candidate before he's even officially in the race.