Oil, Slowing Economy Send Stocks Plunging

Wall Street plunged Thursday, pulling the Dow Jones industrial average down more than 360 points as investors found themselves confronted by two uncomfortable prospects: an end to interest rate cuts and a slowing economy.

Mindful of a warning from the Federal Reserve Wednesday about inflation, the market nervously watched the price of oil, which passed $96 a barrel overnight for the first time before dipping on profit-taking. The Fed, which cut interest rates a quarter point, said in a statement that inflation remained a concern, and oil's ascent to another record raised the possibility not only that the Fed might stop cutting rates, but that it might even consider raising them if inflation accelerates.

Oil analyst Peter Beutel, president of the energy trading consultant Cameron Hanover, told CBS News he wouldn't be surprised to see oil go well beyond $100 a barrel. He's blaming the weak dollar, lower interest rates and demand outstripping supply. Unless we conserve oil, Beutel predicts things will get rather bleak.

"If we don't voluntarily find a way to cut demand and give supply a chance to catch up, then there definitely will be a recession to do it for us," Beutel said.

Meanwhile, Wall Street had to contend with concerns about a slowing economy. A report from the Commerce Department indicated consumers scaled back their spending in September as worries mounted about a worsening housing market and further credit market turmoil.

"We're looking at a 30 percent increase (of homeowners missing mortgage payments) in the third quarter, compared to last quarter, and a doubling of foreclosure activity from the same quarter in 2006," Rick Sharga, vice president of Realty Trac, told CBS News.

Additionally, a trade group reported that manufacturing in the U.S. grew in October at the weakest pace since March.

The Bush administration has been pointing to consumer spending as one of the engines driving what it sees as a "resilient economy," reports CBS News correspondent Peter Maer. The Commerce Department's September report showed the weakest performance in three months.

The combination of factors led investors to pull back sharply from Wednesday's rally, in which the Dow climbed 137 points after the Fed said the economy had weathered the summer's credit crisis.

"Wall Street is in love with the idea of a rate cut, and realized that the Fed said inflation is still a concern - that lowered the chances of a cut in December," said Ryan Detrick, a senior technical strategist with Schaeffer's Investment Research. "We're now feeling the pain now that investors have slept on it, and figured out what they said."

Christopher Cordaro, chief investment officer at RegentAtlantic Capital, said Wall Street remains anxious about the possibility of receission. He also believes the market is devoid of enough positive news "to have any type of sustained rally."

Investors were unswayed when the Fed pumped $41 billion into the U.S. financial system, one of its largest cash infusions since the credit crisis began in the summer. This increases the amount of money banks have to lend, and helps improve liquidity. In the past, such an action helped soothe the market, but that was not the case Thursday.

With the market growing pessimistic about the economy, the Labor Department's report on October jobs creation, scheduled to be released Friday morning, will be taking on even more importance than it usually has.

According to preliminary calculations, the Dow fell 362.14, or 2.60 percent, to 13,567.87.

The Dow fell 362.14, or 2.60 percent, to 13,567.87.

The Standard & Poor's 500 index was off 40.94, or 2.64 percent, at 1,508.44, while the Nasdaq composite index dropped 64.29, or 2.25 percent, to 2,794.83.

Big late-session moves became common on Wall Street during the summer. Investors remain hopeful that a down market will turn around, but tend to launch a late afternoon selloff if that doesn't happen.

"I'd be surprised if we don't close on the lows of the day because of the type of panic you're seeing right now," said Chris Johnson, president of Johnson Research Group. "We've been getting all these mixed signals, and this is just a confluence of bad news between the Fed, the financials, and this mixed earnings season."

Financial stocks fell after Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., the two biggest U.S. banks, were downgraded by CIBC World Markets on worries about the credit markets.

Investors pulling money out of stocks turned to the safe haven of the Treasury market. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note fell to 4.34 percent from 4.47 percent late Wednesday.

Crude prices vaulted above $96 per barrel in overnight trading. A barrel of light sweet crude fell $1.13 to $93.40 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The Commerce Department's report that consumer spending rose by 0.3 percent in September, slightly lower than the 0.4 percent increase that analysts expected, raised concerns about a slowing economy.

In addition, the performance of the manufacturing sector in October suggested that ongoing troubles in the housing and credit markets have seeped into the industrial sector. The Institute for Supply Management, a Tempe, Ariz.-based trade group, reported its manufacturing index registered 50.9, down from 52.0 in September and below expectations for 51.8. A reading above 50 indicates growth; below that spells contraction.

Also Thursday, the Labor Department said the number of people filing for unemployment benefits declined by a larger-than-expected 6,000 last week to total 327,000.

Also, "there's a shift in attention today to a couple of pieces of bad corporate news," Art Hogan, chief market strategist of Jefferies & Co., said.

Wall Street was also troubled by the day's corporate news. Exxon Mobil Corp.'s third-quarter profits fell 10 percent because of lower refining and chemical margins. Shares of the Dow component dropped $2.43, or 2.6 percent to $89.56.

Citigroup Inc. and Bank of America Corp., the two biggest U.S. banks, were downgraded by CIBC World Markets on worries about the credit markets. Bank of America, the No. 2 U.S. bank, dropped $2.28, or 4.7 percent, to $46. Citi, the nation's largest financial institution, dropped $2.82, or 6.7 percent to $38.54 - its lowest level in four years.

This selloff was led by Citigroup, CBS News correspondent Anthony Mason reports. The big bank has already written off more than $6 billion in mortgage related losses - and rumors are flying there could be billions more to come.