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I'm on the road this week, but have no doubt that Calculated Risk will cover this thoroughly:
Q2: real annualized GDP growth slows to 2.4%, by Calculated Risk:A growth rate of 2.4% is not strong to be clear of the danger of losing even more ground, let alone to make up for losses that have already occurred. In order to escape the recession and make up for the lost GDP and employment, GDP growth needs to be far stronger than 2.4%. In the past when we've come out of recessions, we've grown at rates twice this or more. Until we see GDP growth rates in this range, I'd like to see rates of 5% or more, the economy will continue to employ its resources, labor in particular, at a suboptimal rate....I'll have some graphs soon.
From the BEA:Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.4 percent in the second quarter of 2010, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 3.7 percent.
This shows clearly that Congress and the Fed should have taken a more aggressive posture already, not doing so was a mistake, and it's a clear signal that the economy still needs more help. The Fed may eventually do more, at least there are recent nods in this direction (though my best guess is that the Fed will not), but additional stimulus through fiscal policy seems out of the question, especially on the spending side. When this is all over, we will look back and regret that we didn't do more to help the economy, and more importantly the people within it. Maybe recent data showing that the economy is struggling to recover will change this, but I'm not counting on it.
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