2015, the year of geopolitical upheaval

Welcome to 2015, a year that will be fraught with international economic challenges on a scale not seen in decades.

That's the call from Eurasia Group, a New York-based research and consulting firm that specializes in analyzing how political developments move and shape global markets. It believes the world playing board has changed, and the name of the game this year will be geopolitics.

"As 2015 begins, political conflict among the world's great powers is in play more than at any time since the end of the Cold War," says the group's newly released Top Risks 2015 report.

But unlike the Cold War, where ideology shaped much of the conflict, Eurasia Group says this year's dominant themes will be economic and political realignments that it expects to take place on a regional, rather than global scale. But they're also reshaping the world's financial landscape.

"We're not doomsayers. We're certainly not particularly pessimistic generally, but I tell you we are for 2015," Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer said in a conference call following the report's release. "As political scientists looking at the world geopolitically, there's a lot of foreboding out there."

And the U.S., according to the report, is the biggest player when it comes to how those realignments might play out as America evolves from its role as global policeman. "The United States in recent years has more often acted just like any other country: sometimes proactive, sometimes belatedly reactive, and sometimes indifferent -- but with much greater impact," the report noted.

And this new unilateralism has America using a broad arsenal of policies and procedures that allow it to act on its own internationally, while minimizing any economic and/or political impacts at home, according to Eurasia Group.

One important shift in U.S. policy is what the report calls the "Weaponization of Finance," the use of financial rewards and penalties as tools of coercive diplomacy.

Bremmer said that means an American government that's "willing to go to allies, irrespective of whether they support all these policies or not, saying 'if you want access to the U.S. marketplace, you're going to have to support these policies.'"

But he noted that many of Washington's allies -- especially in Europe, where the ongoing regional economic crisis has precedence over geopolitics -- are going to have trouble supporting that shift in policy.

As an example he pointed to the recent call by French President Francois Hollande, who wants Western sanctions on Russia -- a major oil supplier to Western Europe -- removed if any progress is made in upcoming negotiations regarding the Ukraine crisis.

And while a "robust" economic recovery at home may be allowing the U.S. more free rein over how it approaches the rest of the world, it may also be adding to international tensions.

"Russia is lashing out, the Middle East is fragmenting, Islamic radicalism is expanding, and Europe faces challenges on all of these fronts," Bremmer and Eurasia Group Chairman Cliff Kupchan said in a statement. Regarding Europe, the report said its economics are in substantially better shape compared to the depths of the eurozone crisis, "but the politics is now much worse."

In addition to Europe, the Top Risks 2015 report highlights some other potential economic flash points for this year:

China -- While continuing a transition to a consumer-driven economic model, China's economy has been slowing down. And while that change might have minimal impact within China, it's "cold comfort" for the expanding list of economies that depend on booming trade with a commodity-hungry China.

In terms of China-Taiwan relations, Eurasia Group expects domestic politics in Taiwan will cause Taipei's relationship with the mainland to deteriorate in 2015. That may prompt Beijing to "back away from trade and investment deals that have already been signed and significantly toughen its rhetoric, provoking considerable public hostility in Taiwan" while potentially affecting U.S.-China relations.

The Middle East -- The report expects ISIS to suffer military setbacks in Iraq and Syria, while it predicts the Islamic State's "ideological reach" will spread across the region, heightening the risk for further destabilization. The ongoing rivalry between Saudi Arabia and Iran may also deepen.

Weak incumbents -- Leaders in Brazil, Colombia, South Africa and Turkey are facing growing political opposition, which may focus those nations' official economic strategies more on domestic political agendas.

The rise of strategic sectors -- "Success and failure for business in 2015 will depend increasingly on governments that are focused more on political stability than on economic growth," the report said, "benefiting companies that operate in harmony with their political goals and punishing those that don't."