Straight Talk for the Republicans

Political Players is a weekly conversation with the leaders, consultants, and activists who are shaping American politics. During a week in which the Republican presidential candidates held their first New Hampshire debate, CBSNews.com caught up with Republican strategist Mike Murphy, who has in the past worked for two current presidential candidates -- John McCain and Mitt Romney. Murphy has also served as chief strategist for Jeb Bush, Lamar Alexander, and Arnold Schwarzenegger. CBS News' Brian Goldsmith talked to him about the race and the state of the GOP.

CBSNews.com: Which of your former clients would you rather be right now, John McCain or Mitt Romney?

Mike Murphy: Well, Mitt is richer and McCain is better looking. So, it's a hard call.

CBSNews.com: Very funny. Is there really a gap in the Republican field, a yearning for a southern consistent conservative that Fred Thompson can fill? And is that space big enough to win the nomination?

Mike Murphy: Well, there are a couple of questions in there —- sneaky media trick -- so I will try to break it down into pieces. I don't think the Republican primary electorate is yearning for much of anything yet, because I don't believe the campaign has even really started. I think we are still in the silly pre-season and so I think the voters are just starting to sample candidates now. And the more the merrier.

But I don't think it is preordained for anybody. If Fred Thompson runs, he will be serious and an impressive candidate. It will be a Big Four instead of a Big Three. But I've been in politics long enough to beware early candidate hype when the echo chamber gets way in front of the voters.

And it is not the potential of these candidates that decides whether they win, it's their performance and their message. 90 percent of this election will be decided in January of next year and not this year. This year is important for early organization and money and initial media. But the voters are on a much different timetable than the elite media and the political elite that's currently are having so much fun with this. And I plead guilty to being part of that as I call you from the CNN workroom here at the debate in New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: You have long said that these contests are about two things, message and money. What is the message that Republican primary voters need to hear right now? And who is coming closest to delivering it?

Mike Murphy: Well, it is a change election. So, it has to be a measured message of change. Not an anti-President Bush message at all, but what happens beyond the President. What is the next chapter? And a combination of domestic issues like spending and how we get government under control. Conservatives like smaller government, and government has gotten very large. Messages about our culture and how do we make sure we do not have a declining culture but we still have some personal responsibility and we are generally pro-family.

And then, finally, a foreign policy that is practical, effective and competent about how we keep America safe in a time of worldwide jihad. And how we face the rise of China. Those are the big issues.

And I think the Republicans are going to look for a conservative, competent policy to address that, including the economic, the social, and the foreign cluster of issues. The Republican Party carries the burden right now -- some of it fair, some of it unfair -- of incompetence. And to win this change election we are going to need to, I think, nominate a candidate who shows himself, in this case, to be strong in both ideas and vision, and in execution and competence. And I think there are several candidates who fit that mould.

You have McCain, the great reformer, who I think people respect for his courage and his strength, and his expertise in foreign policy. You've got Mitt Romney, one of the most effective governors in the country, who is very good on spending and fiscal issues. You've got Rudy Giuliani who clearly stands for strength, as a mayor of New York in a time of crisis. And potentially you have Fred Thompson, who has a strong conservative voting record in Washington and kind of a folksy common sense attitude that I think would be very reassuring to people.

CBSNews.com: Is this immigration bill, as the conventional wisdom would have it, bad for Republicans in the primary but good in the general?

Mike Murphy: Well look, I am a conservative but on the immigration issue I am exactly where the President is. The bill is not perfect, no compromise is. But I support the bill, because I support a guest worker program and a path to citizenship.

It is an issue of great turbulence in the primary. I think most Americans support the bill but in the Republican world, it is being debated right now in bumper stickers and stereotypes. But I think this debate will be the beginning of a passionate and necessary discussion within the Republican Party of where we are going to be on this. I can argue either way as to where the strongest political position is.

But the fact is that the status quo is a form of amnesty. Doing nothing is kind of a de facto amnesty. So, I think this debate needs to mature but it is going to be at the top of the Republican agenda for the next few months. And I hope that the pro-immigration-within-reason-and-legality voices succeed because I think that immigration by the rules -- and I believe a guest worker program is part of that -- is what made America great.

CBSNews.com: You said on Sunday that you thought Governor Romney may have made a mistake in coming out so quickly against this new compromise. Particularly since last year he seemed to be for a bill that might have been even more liberal than this one. How does he undo the perception that he is always changing in the direction of trying to appeal to primary voters?

Mike Murphy: Well, speaking for myself, I think Mitt is a very impressive guy, would be a very good president and a good candidate. And I think it would help him, politically, if people get to know him better over the next year. He's taken a number of unpopular positions over the years.

And I think sometimes fighting for something people may not agree with you on gets their respect. I don't know the tick-tock on Mitt and immigration but I think Mitt is probably trying to formulate an immigration policy that is a somewhat more conservative alternative of what the President, and this Senate, Republicans and Democrats, came up with, and that is the burden on him now. He is going to have to find some middle ground where he is not for busing 12 million people out of the country, but that can reconcile what he has said about amnesty.

I had the feeling that his campaign might have put him out on a limb before the ink was dry on the bill. And it has put him in a tricky position. But I think over time he will make what he feels clear, and the people will judge him on that.

CBSNews.com: So Romney isn't being treated fairly on this?

Mike Murphy: Mitt doesn't always get a fair shake. Mitt has been tough, stubborn, and totally committed on a bunch of issues. I mean, he has got a health care plan that is not Republican orthodoxy but it is very good and a big plus.

I think his campaign needs to do a better job of showing that in a bigger spectrum —- and maybe a little more careful jumping to the tactical advantage on something where, I think, in this argument probably it is his nature to have a thoughtful position, that he takes some time to figure out. I am not quite sure how this happened so quickly. But I think it puts him in a little box that he will now have to explain.

CBSNews.com: When do you think the Giuliani-is-too-liberal narrative actually starts to hurt him? He is still leading in the national polls -- although, I guess there is an argument to be made that national polls are meaningless at this point.

Mike Murphy: Yeah, that is my argument. I do not believe any national poll is worth a hill of beans till after the Iowa caucus. It is all name ID. So I think, some people in the party will like the fact that Rudy is more liberal on social issues, some will not. And Rudy is going to have to go make the case.

And he has done a little of it at the last debate to explain. I think what you will see Rudy do is try to focus his campaign on strength and national security to not have to talk about those social issues. But after Iowa, when it starts to narrow down to two or three people I think that debate will get more intense over where is Rudy on social issues. Because there are going to be a lot of voters who care about them as he moves down to Florida, South Carolina and the states after New Hampshire.

CBSNews.com: You were a pretty good Democratic primary pundit in 2004, despite yourself, so how do you assess the state of the Democratic race right now? You've been pretty pessimistic about Hillary. How do you think Obama or Edwards slays her at this point?

Mike Murphy: Well, I think any of the three can win, but I think Obama certainly and Edwards potentially has a better shot. I just do not think Hillary is that great of a candidate. I think in a change election she is trapped talking about the past, because that is where most of her narrative is.

So I just think she has weaknesses other people may not see now. I think Obama is change. And change is what the election is about. And I think he is very impressive. So, I think that is where kind of the power in that candidacy is.

Edwards is a populist, at least now. I don't know what Edwards really believes but he is running as a kind of populist, left-wing Democrat, which is where the energy is in their Iowa caucus. It is a very front loaded schedule. He wins Iowa and he is off to the races. And Edwards has the advantage, as Hillary does -- although she has not quite been a candidate —- of having done this before. He is very ring-wise. He is smart and focused. So, I think it's easy to underestimate John Edwards in this primary.

CBSNews.com: What is George W. Bush's political legacy for the Republican Party? Are the Republicans better off now than they were in 2000?

Mike Murphy: We don't know yet. The war is not over. The surge is not over. I like Zhou Enlai's great comment about the French Revolution. What does he think the impact on politics was? And he says, "Too early to tell."

Legacies take a while to sink in. I think President Bush's history will be better than contemporary critics would say. And I think his motives have always been pure even in the mistakes he might have made. But we do not know yet. We are going to have to wait to see.

CBSNews.com: My last question is actually two parts. First is, do policy ideas ever move voters? And second, what do you think the two or three most innovative policy ideas so far of this campaign have been, if any?

Mike Murphy: Romney's healthcare plan, which will be developed more -- the one he has submitted, not the one the Democrats marked up. I am doing this backwards from your second question first. And, actually I think Biden's partition plan for Iraq, which I actually think was good a year ago. These are both provocative and I think pretty smart. Gave you one Republican and one Democrat.

And policy is the language by which candidates talk to people about what they care about, who they are, and what they are going to do. So, their policies help define the candidate, though these campaigns are not often a single referendum on one piece of policy. The immigration issue, for example, is about how the candidates handle it.

By Brian Goldsmith