Scotland's Independence

This week the British Prime Minister David Cameron signed a piece of paper that might, just might, lead to the break up of our country. In two years' time there will be a referendum to decide whether Scotland should become an independent country.

I'm an Englishman sitting here in London. I won't even get a vote. It's for the Scots alone to decide whether to break up the United Kingdom. It would be a bit like Quebec leaving Canada or Louisiana seceding from the United States. If the majority of Scots vote 'Yes' there could in theory be a Scottish army and navy, border posts along the frontier, a new currency, and everything else that goes with it.

There's already a Scottish Parliament after a huge amount of power over domestic issues was devolved to Scotland fifteen years ago. But the Nationalists who want independence already have a big majority in that Parliament. The opinion polls suggest most Scots don't want to break free completely, but the Nationalists are clever campaigners, and only a fool would say the referendum is bound to be lost.

The consequences of a Yes victory would be huge. Britain's nuclear submarines are based in Scottish ports, most of our naval ships are built there. The Queen's favourite house - she has quite a few - is north of the border. The Nationalists have long claimed that the reserves of oil and gas off the coast belong to Scotland.

Politically it matters too. The UK would have less clout internationally if we suddenly became smaller. And Scottish legislators who now sit at the Westminster parliament here in London are almost all left of centre. Take them away and Mr Cameron's Conservative Party could be in power down here for the rest of time. You might think that's a prospect that would delight him. But being a Conservative means conserving Britain's culture and heritage, including the union with Scotland.

Now to be fair, I've given you a very English version of the arguments. But if the referendum is to be defeated it's for Scots who can see the benefits of staying part of a larger, richer, more powerful country to win the argument. The only thing for certain is that there's an awful lot of arguing to come.

This is Lance Price for CBS News in London, capital for now at least of the still 'United' Kingdom.