Push Coming To Shove

CBS News Reporter Charles Wolfson is a former Tel Aviv bureau chief for CBS News, who now covers the State Department.

Using regional groupings of allies to front its efforts, the administration is nearing critical points with the other two members of President George W. Bush's so-called axis of evil.

North Korea has refused for almost a year to attend planned meetings of the Six Party Talks, the Asia-Pacific group (China, South Korea, Japan, Russia and the U.S. are the other members) it had agreed to deal with over the issue of how to end its nuclear weapons program in exchange for security guarantees and much needed economic aid.

Instead, Pyongyang has demanded bi-lateral talks with Washington, something the administration has refused to do, other than on the sidelines of the larger group meetings.

While Secretary of State Rice's new point man for North Korea, Assistant Secretary of State Christopher Hill, talks to our allies about how to pressure the North Koreans to return to the table, Kim Jong II's government counters with threats of its own, the most worrisome being that it will conduct a nuclear test with one of the bombs it is thought to have.

The standoff is troublesome and problematic for the Bush administration. Japan agrees with Washington's desire to increase the pressure on Pyongyang, but China and South Korea appear less willing to back measures which could push the North Koreans closer to a nuclear test, something everyone agrees would be a major problem. Senior state department officials say Washington's suggestion to China to restrict oil supplies to its neighbor was rejected by Beijing. But one senior official conceded "people are looking for next steps, looking for what do you do if they don't show up."

Iran is not nearly as far along in fulfilling its nuclear ambitions, but it seems just as determined as North Korea. The Bush administration is convinced it is using the cover of its civilian nuclear power program to develop a nuclear weapons capability.

The diplomatic approach is similar, however, in its multilateral nature. With Iran, the Bush administration is working with the British, French and Germans, the so-called EU-3. By showing a little flexibility and going along with the European approach in the past few months, the administration bought itself some good will in Europe, and at the same time, got the Europeans to step up the pressure on Tehran.

Now, push is coming to shove. Tehran is trying to avoid meeting its obligations to the EU-3 and to the U.N. by re-starting work on its nuclear program and the Europeans have called them on it in a warning letter, saying, in part "the consequences could only be negative for Iran."

The most likely consequence would be for the U.N. to take up the issue with the possibility of imposing sanctions. In Washington, Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told a Senate committee this week "The Security Council always remains an option should the Iranians not live up to their obligations, but we are still hopeful that they will recognize where they are."

Neither Tehran nor Pyongyang want to give up programs they see as leverage and one of the few ways to prove they can exert power in a world dominated by the United States. Clearly neither country wants to completely buy into the Bush administration's desired course of action.

It would be interesting to see what would happen if Washington showed a little more diplomatic flexibility, especially with North Korea which is the more immediate and volatile threat. On the other hand, perhaps both North Korea and Iran are just posturing, trying to get better terms for the moment when they do return to the negotiating tables.