Blumenthal's Lead Over McMahon Shrinks in Connecticut
A new poll suggests that the Connecticut Senate race, once considered an easy win for Democrats, has become competitive.
Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal, the Democratic nominee, leads Republican Linda McMahon 51 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac poll released today. Blumenthal's lead has narrowed significantly since the summer, when polls gave him a 20-point advantage over McMahon, the former CEO of World Wrestling Entertainment.
Just 3 percent of likely voters said they were undecided; 11 percent of those who named a preferred candidate said they could change their mind before Election Day.
"This is now a 6 point race among likely voters. With seven weeks to go and lots of money to be spent, anything can happen," Quinnipiac University Poll Director Douglas Schwartz said in a statement.
The poll shows Blumenthal with a 15-point advantage among women, while men are split in their support of the two candidates. Additionally, women are split over McMahon when it comes to favorability rating but give Blumenthal positive marks by a two-to-one margin. The difference could be attributed to the Democrats' spotlighting of McMahon's history with the WWE and the organization's treatment of women.
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Blumenthal's lead has nonetheless shrunk as McMahon has spent heavily on her campaign. She has pledged to spend $50 million of her own money on the race and has spent nearly half that as of early August, the Washington Post reports. For his part, Blumenthal has spent $1.7 million on television ads already, according to the Post -- a healthy sum but one that pales in comparison to McMahon's financing.
Opinions about the president are probably not helping Blumenthal. President Obama's job approval rating stands at just 45 percent in Connecticut, even though he won the state in 2008 with 61 percent of the vote.
Quinnipiac's methodology may account for part of the smaller margin between the two candidates, the New York Times points out. While previous Quinnipiac polls surveyed registered voters, this one surveyed likely voters -- a measurement that this election cycle appears to be more favorable for Republicans, as as result of the greater enthusiasm this year among GOP voters. The Times' Nate Silver contends surveys of likely voters are typically more reliable, particularly in midterm elections.
