Greenhouse Gas Agreement Unlikely
To environment ministers meeting informally on the sidelines of a U.N. conference this week, prospects for resolving an international deadlock on global warming looked bleak.
Ministers from about 80 countries met Thursday and Friday in Nairobi to discuss how to protect the environment in coordination with the U.N. Environment Program.
The main topic was how to resolve differences that prevented agreement last November in the Netherlands on implementing an international accord on reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Greenhouse gases mostly come from burning fossil fuels for factories, power plants and cars; they contribute to global warming.
But prospects for agreement look bleak because of continuing differences between a U.S.-led group of countries and the 15-member European Union.
"I don't see this being bridged in the short run," said Canada's Environment Minister David Anderson.
The next round of talks was to be held in Bonn, Germany, in May, but it now appears likely to be pushed back to July to give the administration of U.S. President George W. Bush time to become familiar with the issues, Anderson said.
The meeting would be part of a series on implementation of the 1997 Kyoto Protocol which commits industrialized countries to reducing worldwide release of carbon-based gases to 5.2 percent below the 1990 levels by 2010.
A key point of divergence is the U.S.-led group's proposal to subtract carbon dioxide absorbed by forests and farmland from their ascribed reduction quotas. The United States, Canada, Japan, Norway, Australia and New Zealand, known collectively as the Umbrella Group, also want to subtract carbon dioxide absorbed by forests that developed nations plant. Some European governments oppose such credits.
"We had our view that it should be the widest approach, and we should be able to do it as cheaply as possible," Canada's Anderson said. "The Europeans had their view, which was more restrictive. Carbon in the air or other greenhouse gasses ... is exactly the same no matter from what source or what part of the world."
British Environment Minister Michael Meacher said Britain and other European countries are skeptical about the Umbrella Group's plan because of uncertainties about the degree of carbon absorption and the effect of forest fires.
The fact that Bush has not yet named a U.S. environmental negotiator also impedes progress.
"It remains to be seen what the new administration will do," said U.S. Rep. Jim Greenwood. "I think it's unlikely the Bush administration is going to say: 'Climate changes are a result of human activity, and the matter is urgent and we agree to (the) Kyoto Protocol immediately."'
Without an agreement, the negative effects of greenhouse gases will only get worse, said Greenwood, who sits on the Congressional Environment and Health subcommittee.
"What is indisputable," he sad, "is that greenhouse gases are a thermostat, and you can only crank a thermostat up so far until it cooks."
A recent UNEP report predicts that, unless efforts are made to curb air pollution now, in 50 years, global warming will cost the world more than dlrs 300 billion annually. And while developed nations argue, concern grows elsewhere, particularly on island states.
"We're in such a vulnerable position," said Tuuu Taulealu, director of environment for the Pacific island of Samoa. "We're in trouble even if something is done. If nothing is done, we're in more trouble. We would love to see some final decision on Kyoto."
Climate changes and rising sea levels are already having a negative affect on Pacific islands, Taulealu said.
"It's a very political issue. Every developed country has its stakeholders ... businesses and industries, and they feel threatened by cutbacks," he said.
By ANDREW ENGLAND
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