Campaign '06: A Tale Of Two States
CBS News Director of Surveys Kathleen Frankovic has been surveying more than voters; she's been surveying the political landscape. She's seeing some interesting developments in two key states, and wrote us this morning to tell us about them. -- Ed.
Both states have problems with corruption -- most voters in each think corruption is widespread in their state -– with the number rising to a staggering 69% (!) in New Jersey. The corruption in Ohio is mainly a Republican problem, affecting the governor and one member of Congress in particular -- Bob Ney, whose traditionally Republican district is now up for grabs. But at the statewide level, the Republican candidates for Senate and Governor are only guilty by association.
In New Jersey, corruption is a Democratic problem - and this time it's the Democratic Senate nominee, Robert Menendez, who's tarred with the charge. He's been attacked by Republican ads, which are overwhelmingly seen by voters as negative (and Menendez is firing back with his own attack ads). And when we asked voters to tell us the first thing that came to mind when they heard the name Robert Menendez, more than one in five said "corruption." That's twice as many that gave the second-most popular answer: that he was a Democrat (and talk about guilt by association – five of our respondents actually mentioned the Menendez brothers, convicted of murdering their parents ten years ago).
Republican nominee Tom Kean, Jr. has a positive association -- one with his namesake father, the popular former New Jersey Governor and head of the 9/11 Commission. But that's basically all he has. New Jersey is still basically Democratic when it comes to national issues, with voters opposing the war in Iraq and disapproving of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President. More than half of Menendez's voters are looking even beyond those issues and say it's his party that is the main reason they're supporting him. He has been hurt by corruption charges, but the race is still competitive.
But in Ohio, the voters concerns about corruption parallel other problems they have with the Republican Party. Voters in Ohio, the state which narrowly gave the President his 2004 victory, now disapprove of him. And the state's poor economy also hurts - it's the dominant issue on voters' minds. So now, Republican Senator Mike De Wine is well behind his Democratic challenger Congressman Sherrod Brown – and the Senate seat could very well be one of the gains the Democrats need.