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Watching Heavy Rain For Part Of The Weekend

A FEW POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON & EVENING

A weak front is draped across North Texas from Gainesville to Tyler and is helping to focus a few pop up showers and storms this afternoon.  As of this writing, none of the storms is severe, but we have had some heavier downpours and some lighting with these storms,  mainly NE of the DFW area.  Once we lose maximum heating, around sunset, the showers should begin to fall apart completely.  It should be a quite rest of the evening after that and overnight.

ISOLATED STORMS CONTINUE THURSDAY THRU SATURDAY

We will continue to watch pop up storms in  the afternoons for the rest of the week.  Storms will also fire in West Texas and move our way, but most of them should fall apart before getting here.  We don't have any strong disturbances coming our way the next few days.  But again we can't rule out a few storms during the afternoon anywhere In North Texas.

STORMS LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY

Our computer guidance continues to point us toward Sunday and parts of Monday as the main event in terms of rain and storms for North Texas.  A powerful upper level low pressure system will deepen over the Desert Southwest and move toward Texas by the end of the weekend.  This will send a weak cold front our way, but provide strong lift for widespread showers and thunderstorms.  Some of the storms will be strong to severe.  There is now a little discrepancy in terms of how long it will rain in North Texas.  One computer model, the GFS, is indicating that rain will be with us Sunday and Monday…while the European computer model is showing rain pushing to the east for Monday.  Obviously if the GFS holds true, we will end up with a lot of rain, as shown below.  I'm leaning toward the GFS a bit, forecasting rain to linger into at least Monday morning, before pushing east by Monday afternoon.

gfs

FORECAST

Tonight…Isolated showers early…then mostly cloudy.  Low 64° SE wind 5-10 mph.

Tomorrow…Watching storms approach from West Texas early but falling apart.  Partly cloudy.  20% chance of pop up storms.  High 80°  SE wind 15-20 mph.

Friday…Partly to mostly cloudy.  20% chance of storms.  High 80°  Turning windy.  South wind 15-30 mph.

Saturday…Partly to  mostly cloudy.  20% chance of storms.  High 81°  South wind 20-30 mph.

Sunday…Mostly cloudy & windy.  60% chance of storms..some strong to severe with heavy rainfall.  High 78°

Monday…Mostly cloudy.  Rain slowly tapering off.  High 76°

Tuesday…Mostly sunny.  High 74°

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