Relentless

Weighing all the global atmospheric factors last fall lead to the conclusion that this winter was going to be snowier than average and definitely more stormy than last year. It got off to a slow start but it certainly has been relentless for the last 6 weeks. Boston's seasonal snowfall has exceeded 60 inches which is more than 18 inches greater than the average for an entire year. For most areas, this month's snowfall totals are astounding with Worcester having its second snowiest January on record and Boston having its third snowiest January on record. The snowiest year ever occurred in 1995-96 when Boston's total was an astonishing 107.6 inches. In that period, Boston's monthly snowfall amounted to 4.1" in November, 24.1" in December, 39.8" in January, 15.5" in February, 16.8" in March and 7.3" in April. Interestingly, this season is similar to that one so far except there was no snow in Boston this past November. Does this suggest that we are in for many many more weeks of winter? Not necessarily but you can check out the silliness of Punxsutawney Phil's prediction next Wednesday when he should not see his shadow. In reality, the upper air pattern favors a very active period lasting 2-3 more weeks minimum. One storm leads to another and one arctic airmass leads to another. Some of these storms will be weak clippers while others will originate in the southern stream and contain a rich moisture supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Slight oscillations of the jetstream will either allow a grazing of colder air or an outright outbreak of frigid air. Some folks would call this an old-fashioned winter but the truth is we've had many more snowfall records established in the last 1-2 decades than back when us baby boomers were growing up. Going forward, concern will be focused on ice dams and potential roof failures due to weight limitations from additional snow, icing or soaking rain. I am quite confident that February and March of this year will be contrasted sharply to last year when only 7 inches of snow fell in February and 15 inches of rain flooded the region in March. On a positive note, for all the optimists, meteorological winter is nearly two-thirds over!

Did you enjoy today's weather? It was really quite pleasant with high temperatures in the middle to upper 30s. Boston's max of 37 degrees occurred at 2:13pm. Fortunately, we can conquer winter and make the best of it by getting outside and enjoying all of the winter sports available to us. I enjoyed getting a good workout by cross-country skiing in my neighborhood today. Others had a great time snowshoeing, snow tubing and snowmobiling. Obviously, the nordic and alpine trails at all of the resorts are in great shape. Some of the steep glades are closed way up north where deep fresh snowfalls have been lacking lately.

Any early evening spotty flurries will end and it will cool off to the middle teens to lower 20s tonight. Expect a changeable sky of clouds and some sunshine tomorrow but it will be cooler than today with upper teens and 20s in the northern mountains up to the upper 20s to near 30 from southern NH into upper Worcester County to near 32 in Boston to 33-35 from lower Plymouth County onto Cape Cod. The westerly wind will blow up to 15 mph. A weak disturbance in the upper level wind field may crank out a few spotty flurries as a cold front settles southward through the region. Following this passage, high air pressure will ridge eastward from the Great Lakes into NY state. Cold air drainage from Canada will drop the temperatures to the upper single numbers to middle teens for the Monday morning commute. That's cold but it doesn't match the frigid subzero air that we endured last Monday morning. Sunshine will be bright most of Monday with some filaments of feathery clouds in the afternoon when the temperatures max out in the lower to middle 20s. After that, a weak wave of low pressure will approach on Tuesday providing light to moderate snow commencing near or after the morning commute and lasting most of the day producing a potential 3 up to 5 inches of snow. While this is happening, a vigorous system in the southern stream will have tapped moisture from the Gulf of Mexico leading to the creation of copious amounts of various types of precipitation including nasty thunderstorms across the country. The primary storm will be sent northeastward into the Ohio Valley late Tuesday. From there, the storm center will shift into Pennsylvania with energy translation to a secondary center forming on the NJ coastline. At this time, it appears that this secondary will take over control and track northeastward toward outer Cape Cod. Most all indicators point to a penetration of milder air in aloft causing a switch to sleet and freezing rain inland to Worcester County and rain over southeastern MA perhaps up into the Boston area to possibly Rockport. It is too premature to be confident of snowfall amounts from this system on Wednesday. I believe that the heavier snow shield should advance farther into northern New England for this event. Those areas that have no mixing or changing to mixed frozen types may receive a foot or more of snow. It should change back to snow in most all areas Wednesday night before ending by daybreak Thursday. Subsequent forecast cycles on Monday should deliver a more defining portrait of how this is all going to shake out.

Joe Joyce posts his synopsis in the morning and I shall return later in the afternoon.

Enjoy the rest of the weekend.