Statistics: Mo. baby unlikely taken by stranger

An undated family photo of Lisa Irwin, now 10-months-old, is shown at a news conference in Kansas City, Mo., Oct. 5, 2011. / AP Photo/Family Photo via The Kansas City Star

KANSAS CITY, Mo. - Decades of statistics on infant abductions in the U.S. suggest one of the least likely scenarios in this week's disappearance of a Kansas City baby is that a stranger broke into her home and quietly snatched her from her crib.

But the numbers also lead national experts to believe that if 10-month-old Lisa Irwin was taken by an intruder in the middle of the night, as her parents told investigators, she is likely still alive.

Strangers who kidnap infants or young children, though rare, often do so because they want a child of their own, not because they intend to hurt or kill the child, said David Finkelhor, director of the Crimes Against Children Research Center at the University of New Hampshire.

"The recovery rate for infants is very, very high. There is real hope here," added Ernie Allen, president of the National Center for Missing and Exploited Children in Arlington, Va.

But the experts acknowledge that investigators often focus on close relatives when a baby goes missing, in part because statistics show that far more infants and young children are killed by a parent than a stranger.

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"Suspicion almost always falls heavily on the parents, especially when it's young kids," Finkelhor said. "Fifteen hundred parents kill their kids every year, and that's heavily focused on the under 1 year of age category."

Allen said his organization has handled 278 infant abduction cases during his nearly three decades with the group. Only 13 cases involved a stranger coming into a home and taking a baby, and all but one of those children were recovered unharmed.

Lisa's parents, Jeremy Irwin and Deborah Bradley, reported their daughter missing early Tuesday. Their relationship with investigators chilled late Thursday, when police said the parents had stopped cooperating. The couple quickly insisted they only needed a break from incessant police questioning.

On Saturday, the parents were meeting again with detectives, Kansas City police spokesman Capt. Steve Young said. He declined to say what was discussed.

A day earlier, Bradley told The Associated Press that police had accused her of being involved in her daughter's disappearance, which she vehemently denies, and told her she failed a lie detector test. The couple told the AP police have treated them like suspects, and Bradley said detectives told her: "`You did it. You did it. And we have nothing."'

Investigators said they have no solid leads or suspects despite an extensive search that has included hundreds of officers scouring the family's quiet Kansas City neighborhood, nearby woods and a landfill. Young said investigators with metal detectors were back at the family's home Saturday, but no new substantial leads have come in.

The baby's parents announced Saturday they were organizing a reward, hoping it would lead to new information, and that they'd be doing less media interviews.

Bradley has said she checked on her daughter around 10:30 p.m. Monday. Irwin, an electrician, said he discovered the child missing around 4 a.m. Tuesday when he got home from working a late-night shift, prompting a frantic search of their home.

But all they discovered was that many of the home's lights were on, a window was open and the front door was unlocked. The couple later said three cellphones also were missing, which police said produced no solid leads.

Allen and Finkelhor said that with little to go on, it's natural for investigators to turn their focus to Bradley, who was the last person to see her little girl before she went missing.

Finkelhor noted that in some cases, parents have concocted stories about a kidnapping after accidentally killing their child instead of facing the tragedy.

"Sometimes what happens when the parent was involved, the death wasn't intentional but involved a kind of serious negligence," he said. "The responsible parent is so ashamed and maybe ashamed toward the spouse that they decide to dispose of the body and then report it as a missing child."

But Allen cautioned against jumping to conclusions, despite the long odds against a stranger abduction.

"Once the spotlight focuses on parental wrongdoing, the public perception is this is a murder. The focus goes away from the little girl and goes to the parent," he said. "That's why in these situations, police are doing exactly what they should do, pursuing every lead ... If Lisa is out there, we need to do whatever we can to find her."

[hamiltongrad]

just watching the reality crime shows, show that very often the police are not only wrong, but miss or worse falsify evidence, leading to the wrong person(s) being in jail. This sounds like the same type of thing like in Bolder, where the poor parents had to suffer the death of a child and the insults of the police. Can't they just try to find her ?

[UnsureBunny]

I just...I just feel like there are better things to steal like...a car or a bluray player.

http://wtflindseyp.blogspot.com/

[OzCharley]

Whatever happened to innocent until proven guilty? Please don't pre-judge purely on what you read in the media. The media doesn't always tell just the facts. Often those facts are coloured with the reporter's own opinions, thoughts or (sadly) conclusions. Keep an open mind. This is a baby and a whole family's lives under scrutiny.

[noname2138]

Did not realize the mom is married to a different man...this MAY be a suspect...maybe he's jealous of the new relationship with new man in wife's life? Also, someone broke into Lisa's father's car..(targetting him maybe?) The cops should check this guy out

[jannepeach]

Usually young mothers, though extremely attentive, are so tired, they just don't wake up. Once a car crashed into a corner of my house where my baby was in the crib sleeping and i heard NOTHING. My baby didn't wake up either. I like to think I would have heard HER cry, but nothing else. I remember Susan Smith and PRAY Lisa is a different story.

[aubfmet]

If some pervert did it and lived next door does that make them a stranger?

[ralphing]

No, and that was the point they were making. It had to be either the parents, or someone that they knew, like neighbors, friends, or realtives.

[Eggroll5215]

Think it goes without saying that when a 10-month old baby disappears from it's crib in the middle of the night that the parent or parents would be the first suspects! I hope this is not the case with this beautiful little girl and that she is found unharmed!

[you_MAY_be_right]

"The couple told the AP police have treated them like suspects, and Bradley said detectives told her: 'You did it. You did it. And we have nothing.'"


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If that is true it is no wonder they quit talking to the police, and likely lawyered-up.

[pak31]

I am starting to think that she may have planned this. It's just my opinion. First time her hubby works nights, perfect time to steal a baby. She LETS the kidnapper(who she knows) into her home.....he takes Lisa and the cell phones......neighbor sees him walking down the street at 2 a.m.........Mom pops the screen out of window.....leaves front door unlocked.....turns on lights.......fire started in dumpster near home......mom calls someone at 2:37 a.m........fire reported at 2:28 a.m........mom goes to bed with son and waits for dad to come home....dad may be in on it, not sure. Mom still married to current husband, thought I read some issues going on with that, this is why she isn't married to Jeremy. So she's still married to her husband, yet has a baby with another man.

[pak31]

Just want to add that before anyone possibly "yells" at me for this comment, it's JUST at theory---as if chatting with a group of people and just throwing it out there---not saying it's fact or that this is what happened. I got blasted on another site for saying this as if it were fact when it's not.

[ralphing]

The husband goes to work without his cell phone? Unlikely.

The wife goes to bed without the cell phone sitting on the nightstand in case her husband calls? Unlikely.

A two member family owning three cellphones? Highly unlikely?

[rubberrezi]

Stranger things happen everyday. Let's not start convicting without evidence.

[pak31]

It's a free country, we as regular people were allowed to have opinions last time I checked. No one is convicting, we can't, we aren't a jury.