By

Jonathan Cohn /

The New Republic/ September 15, 2011, 9:22 AM

Could "Obamacare" be working?

Need a reason to believe the Affordable Care Act is starting to work? The Census Bureau just gave you a half million of them.

That’s how many young adults had health insurance in 2010, as compared to 2009, according to the official estimates. Or, to put it another way, the proportion of 18- to 24-year olds without health insurance fell, by roughly two percentage points, last year.

It's pretty remarkable, given what was happening in the rest of the population. For every other group of non-elderly adults, from 35 through 64 years of age, the proportion without health insurance increased.

You expect that sort of data, given economic conditions: When people lose jobs, they also lose access to employer-sponsored insurance. When their incomes fall or their debts rise, they have a harder time keeping up with premiums. 

But then why aren't 18- to 24-year-olds suffering the same fate? What makes them so special? 

Nobody can be certain right now. Health insurance estimates are famously quirky and these data frequently mask critical information. But, as noted on Monday, the circumstantial evidence suggests, very strongly, that the Affordable Care Act is the primary factor. 

Remember, one of the first provisions to take effect was a requirement that insurers allow young adults, up to age 26, to stay on their parents’ policies if employer-sponsored insurance is not available. Even though that requirement didn't kick in until the fall, several insurers began offering such coverage earlier, in anticipation of the new rule. Media reports, like this one from Kaiser Health News, have suggested large numbers of young people are signing up for the newly available coverage, even more quickly than the government had anticipated.

Brad Wright, a smart health care researcher now at Brown University, sums it all up in a post at his blog:

Historically, economic downturns coincide with increases in the number of uninsured, as people lose their jobs and, thanks to the design of our health care system, their insurance coverage. So, the unchanged number of uninsured masks what actually happened: Roughly 810,000 middle-aged adults, those ages 45 to 64, were likely let go from their jobs, didn't yet qualify for Medicare, and ended up uninsured. Meanwhile, some 494,000 young adults, those ages 18 to 25, gained coverage, which seems to point to the ACA provision allowing children to stay on their parents' plans until age 26 that went into effect in the fall of 2010. Of course, there may be other explanations, but the simplest explanation is likely the right one.

Of course, the young adult provision is just one small part of the new health care law. The really big increases in insurance coverage won’t happen until 2014, when Medicaid expands to cover a much larger proportion of the low-income population and the federal government begins offering subsidies, plus the opportunity to buy regulated coverage through new insurance exchanges, to middle class people who can’t get employer coverage. And, I’m sure, critics would argue the gains in coverage either don’t make much difference or aren’t worth the harm the law would bring.

Still, these numbers are striking – and seem to suggest that the Affordable Care Act is already helping large numbers of people.

Bio: Jonathan Cohn is a senior editor at The New Republic. The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.
The New Republic. All rights reserved.
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randysanders says:
As always, no one seems to fathom the larger picture. From 1900 to present, the Republicans have had the majority rule in government 71% of the time. That includes all three branches of government. Allowing that my figures are remotely accurate, The Republic is not a Democracy whereby THE PEOPLE, no matter what they believe, are at the mercy and kindness of the Ruling class which just so happens to be the Ultra Rich of the global society. For instance, is it any wonder that 90 percent of the worlds countries call themselves a Republic, not a democracy. The ultra Rich have invested in our republic and thereby helped institute other Republics in the world so they would like the United Republics of America ideal over the United States of American concensus of ideals. The WE THE PEOPLE ideal has once again lost sight of common shared rights for all people and only focus on the Republic of the Republicans and the Democracy of the Democrats. The Blame game is over and it's time for THE PEOPLE to come up with a plan to put leaders of our country in charge of making decisions that will make the global economy work for ALL THE PEOPLE by creating sustainable jobs with sustainable pay so the working class can once again support its government, sickly, and elderly through taxpayers contibutions that are fairly collected by our IRS so that our coffers are once again full and sustainable energy resources are GREEN, GREEN, GREEN.

Whether you call America a Republic and not a democracy, or I democracy and not a Republic, I don't care. Semantics doesn't override the American Constitution which begins "WE THE PEOPLE" will find solutions, and they are listed in our constitution. If you want to change the US Constitution by "Ratifying it to read, "WE THE REPUBLICANS" or "WE THE DEMOCRATS", or "WE THE INDEPEDENTS", you'll find that most Americans would object to your cause of maintaining political clout at the cost of Americans stature in the world. Find the right solutions for America or get out of the way of appropriate progress.

Obama has tried the "middle of the road" approach for bipartsianship in his policies, but he also depends on people to be informed, intelligent, and capable of recognizing what works and what doesn't as far as policies go for solving problems that face America. People find solutions, policies just reaffirm and commit those solutions into law.

Notwithstanding, since Republicans have ruled American government 71% of the time since the year 1900, there are many tax laws (loop holes) that should be abolished. Some just because they are absurd and rephrased differently every couple of years or so. Corporate America isn't to blame but the Ultra Rich need to quit backing the Republicans and get honest about their efforts in shaping America, or any other Country when it comes to the global economy, or we all we be into a WORLD WAR III that the Ultra Rich will have caused by sheer neglect or lack responsibility for their own actions.
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erichsh says:
In case you didn't know it (and you didn't, since CBS didn't mention it), writer John Cohn is a senior fellow at a group called "demos.org". Their stated mission includes:

"Demos help to build the capacity and skills of key progressive constituencies; project our values into the media by promoting Demos Fellows and staff in print, broadcast, and Internet venues; and host public events that showcase new ideas and leading progressive voices."

And liberal news media such as CBS News are all too willing to go along, providing the venues for groups like demos.org to "project their values" - without disclosing the writers' affiliation with such groups.
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venusvegasvada says:
For every other group of non-elderly adults, from 35 through 64 years of age, the proportion without health insurance increased.

Repeal it. What did it fix? Just a creative way of shoveling more money into the Corp Health Care coffers. If this doesn't get fixed the middle and lower class will have to fly overseas when they get sick. Is that the next step? IT'S TOO EXPENSIVE
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mikeonthebay says:
All of Obama's best friends are opting out of his healthcare plan. When Obama puts his family on it, then we should be happy about this plan.
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InspectorT replies:
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What an incredibly ignorant comment. Mike clearly has no understanding whatsoever of the Affordable Care Act and what it is designed to do. the President and his family have insurance through his job, as is the case for millions of Americans. They do not need to take advantage of that aspect of the Act.

As Mama Gump said, "Stupid is as stupid does."
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AlFranken says:
uhh -- Maybe Bush is responsible for this increased insured like he is responsible for catching OBL and uh....
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1stlttightwad says:
There is no possible way for Obama to win re-election.
Obama was elected with 98% support from the people of his color. This same group has an unemployement rate that is 150% higher than others. The color that will determine his election will be the color and amount of the "Greenbacks" in their pocket. That one issue has already determined his fate.
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catmomtx replies:
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Oh for goodness sakes! George Bush had the support of about the same number of people his color and after being selected by the Supreme Court his first term and using fear and scare, the terrorist are out to get you tactics during his second term he too was elected by 98% of the people his color.

As for the unemployment rate in the black community, how nice of you to notice when you think you can blame that on the black President. Too bad no one cared about black unemployment before now considering it has always been higher under white Presidents and they never did anything to address the issue. You people are funny though. Were you expecting President Obama to do something more about unemployment in the black community over unemployment in general? If he did, you know as well as I thet you and the other Obama haters would be all over these boards whining, bi!ching and moaning that the President is doing more for black people than he is doing for whites. Heck, many of you believe that anyway.

I think the one issue people will begin to recognize is that Republicans are willing to allow the American people to suffer rather than working with this President to do what is right for the country. The American people have become sick and tired of the hateful, destructive antics of Republicans and those on the reight because of their unreasonable hatred for President Obama. We are not that stupid.
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1stlttightwad says:
If Obama care was/is so good..why have the unions been expempted by being given waivers? Why have 50% of waivers that were granted from Nancy Pelosi's district.
If Obama care is so good, why do businesses cite it as the ONE thing standing in their way of hiring new employees.
That's OK, come 2012 when the dems lose the senate and the whitehouse it will be gone.
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catmomtx replies:
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Why don't you take the time and find out that answer for yourself rather than using the Republican talking points to keep you voying against your own best interest.
sharong59 replies:
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Hey titghtwad, don't hold your breath!
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payasyougo says:
Media, make sure you look at only one aspect and not analyze where the costs are being shifted. Like any other social program, the supported part will appear to work until the supporting part runs out of money.
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b4uigo says:
Another in a long line of feel good Obama support stories from cBSer News. Where is the Solyndra story? The job killing Boeing NLRB union thug story? The humiliating defeat the Dems suffered in Weiner's neighborhood? Obama is rapidly becoming irrelevant to most Americans. 2012 can't come soon enough.
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1stlttightwad replies:
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The libs/dems/CBS all have one thing in common..To cover the stories is to uncover the ineptitude of Obama. It's like looking at a gory train wreck...If you don't see it in front of your face it doesn't exist. The libs/dems/cbs all have their head in the sand..and cannot or will not see what is coming from behind to kick them in the A##.
InspectorT replies:
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Another mindless right-wing drone heard from.
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liberalmike says:
Yea for O'Bamacare! Yes we can!
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liberalmike replies:
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Thank you Pres. O'Bama!
shawshank22 replies:
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No you didn,t......this president has been a miserable failure.....and his voters are the most ignorant and uneducated in U.S. history.
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