Data: No spillover violence in U.S. border cities

A May 2006 file photo of the wall separating Mexico (left) from the United States in Nogales, Arizona. / Jeff Topping/Getty Images

Despite the colorful and headline-grabbing statements of politicians about a rising "spillover" effect of Mexican drug cartel violence within the United States, an analysis of federal crime statistics show border cities are safer than other areas of the states along the U.S. southern border - and are even safer than the U.S. national average.

Writing in USA Today, Alan Gomez, Jack Gillum and Kevin Johnson report that such talk of an "out of control" area likened to a war zone does not match the data.

The paper analyzed detailed crime data from the past decade from California, Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, and found that U.S. border cities were statistically safer on average than other cities in those states, and had lower crime rates than the national average. Murder rates were lower, as were robbery rates, and kidnapping cases have been on the decline.

Rather than seeing a spike in violence in the border region (Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Texas, at a May 2011 congressional hearing: "It has never been more violent or dangerous than it is today. Anyone who lives down there will tell you that"), the crime rate has been falling for years - predating the expansion of security assets along the border.

The paper notes that while the rhetoric of border violence may not match the reality, it has nonetheless helped drive the national debate on such issues as immigration and the expenditure of federal dollars on security.

Yet the perception among the majority of Americans that violence in border cities is higher than the country in general is high (83 percent, according to a recent USA Today/Gallup poll).

Criminologist and University at Albany-SUNY sociology professor Steven Messner calls the results of the analysis "contrary to conventional speculation that the border is an out-of-control place."

Others read the numbers as proof the issue of "spillover violence" from Mexico is being exaggerated and used as an impetus for anti-immigration legislation and stepped-up federal and state funding to law enforcement agencies along the border.

Ali Noorani, executive director of the National Immigration Forum, told USA Today that the analysis illustrates "the ugliest version of the politics of fear that our country has seen for quite a while."

Army finds biggest pot plantation ever in Mexico
In Mexico's drug war, 40 new corpses in 24 hours

Some local law enforcement officials concurred with USA Today's report. "Over the last five years, whether you take a look at violent crime or property crime, we've seen a 30 percent decrease," said Chula Vista (Calif.) Police Chief David Bejarano.

In Arizona, the epicenter of the immigration debate since the state passed a tough immigration enforcement law last year, some police officials are frustrated by the rhetoric.

"Everything looks really good, which is why it's so distressing and frustrating to read about these reports about crime going up everywhere along the border, when I know for a fact that the numbers don't support those allegations,"

Tucson Police Chief Roberto Villase?or said it was "frustrating" to read reports of rising crime along the border, "when I know for a fact that the numbers don't support those allegations,"

But not all local officials buy the data's findings.

"Don't tell me that the violence isn't spilling over," Pinal County (Ariz.) Sheriff Paul Babeu told the paper. "When you have American citizens who don't feel safe in their own home or free in their own country, this should be appalling to everyone."

For more on the story and how the data was analyzed, visit USA Today.

[businessintern]

Also, check out this video on "U.S. Border Security: Mitigating the Insider Threat":

https://www.deloitte.com/view/en_US/us/Insights/Browse-by-Content-Type/podcasts/4b4fa4f772f4f210VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm

[PourpaixPourpaix]

Oh, come on! The bad guys don't come across the border and make violence in a town crawling with police, border patrol, and immigration agents everywhere. At least, not until the cops are on your payroll. You get away from the border to somewhere your activities can be hidden, like Phoenix, San Diego, Los Angeles, etc. The greater question is whether there's spillover violence in America. If this reporter is suggesting there is none, then I'm chagrined to learn reporters don't read the news.

For many years, I lived in a border town on the Canadian border, near a large Canadian city. It was generally safer than other nearby cities. However, everybody knew that there were a large number of strangers passing through town, many who are unsavory. Say the wrong word at the wrong time ...... maybe you get to be an exception. We watched what we said and did very carefully.

[bradkt1]

This is manipulated data that is designed to advocate amnesty for illegal immigrants. The simple fact is that a crime committed by an illegal immigrant is a crime that would never have occurred on American soil if he wasn't here in the first place. And by the way, do you REALLY think that illegal immigrants are reporting all of the crimes that are being committed against them?

The bureaucrats who compiled this meaningless data are not people who live near the U.S.-Mexico boder. They are not the ones under seige who are made to feel both unsafe and uncomfortable in their own homes on a daily basis. They are not the constantly trod-on the welcome mat for an out-of-control stampede of millions of illegal immigrants.

These crime statistics don't mean a thing until you become a victim. Then it's personal. It doesn't matter how seldom or how often it happens to anyone else...

...It had no business happening to you because the perpetrator had no business being here in the U.S. in the first place! When that happens, every argument in favor of giving another immigration amnesty...slow-motion or otherwise...falls apart.

[DustBowl51]

Wave of Drug Violence Is Creeping Into Arizona From Mexico, Officials Say

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/24/us/24border.html

A quick Google search sort of invalidates the article's thesis...

[DustBowl51]

Homeland Security official affirms Mexican drug cartel violence has spilled over into Texas

http://www.elpasotimes.com/newupdated/ci_11770847

Pretty funny conclusion... Ironic, or just plain hogwash?

[antoniof123]

So the numbers speak I don't live in a border town I live on the coast where we should all live.