Pacific Northwest "overdue" for major quake

Perhaps the most dangerous fault line in the United States stretches from the northern part of California, up along the coast of Oregon and Washington, and into Canadian waters. It's called Cascadia, and for a long time no one knew it was there.

It wasn't until the mid-1980s that geophysics recognized the fault line that existed just 40 miles offshore -- one frighteningly similar to the one which just erupted off the coast of Japan. It then took until 1995 before the state of Oregon incorporated specific provisions in its building code mandating protection against earthquakes. Many of the buildings now standing in the state were built before the provisions were adopted; the vast majority has not been retrofitted to improve safety.

If, as in the 9.0 magnitude event in Japan, one tectonic plate in Cascadia gets forced beneath another, it could result in a quake that reduces many of the buildings near the coast to rubble. It would take less than 30 minutes for the subsequent tsunami to reach shore.

The last major earthquake to hit in the region was in the year 1700; its effects could be felt all the way across the Pacific Ocean. With the region experiencing 41 quakes 8.0 magnitude or above over the past 10,000 years, geologists say it's a question of when - not if - the next one hits.

"We're overdue," warns geotechnical engineer Yumei Wang of the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.

And for the most part, the region is unprepared. Japan has cutting-edge technology to deal with earthquakes, which is one of the reasons the terrible devastation from last week's quake wasn't even worse; the United States, by contrast, has done relatively little to prepare for a similar disaster.  And with states and the federal government suffering serious budgetary woes, officials are not looking to spend money on infrastructure to project against earthquakes and tsunamis - a threat that may not seem urgent until it's too late.

According to the American Society of Civil Engineers, America's infrastructure warrants a grade of "D" overall. One in four of Oregon's bridges are structurally deficient or functionally obsolete, according to the report; in Washington, nearly 30 percent of bridges need repairs. Many of the dams in the area that protect urban areas are vulnerable.

The next Cascadia quake will "likely to be the greatest natural disaster that's ever impacted the United States," said Ian Maiden, chief scientist for Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries. Maiden put the odds of such a quake within the lifetimes of people living in the Pacific Northwest at 30 percent.

"It's an event that we have to plan for, and anything we want to see survive needs to be made resilient against such an event," he said.

The Cascadia Subduction Zone

/ California Emergency Management Agency

In Oregon, according to a 2007 study, nearly half the schools in the state face a high risk of collapse in a quake; low-lying coastal towns, meanwhile, have little to no protection against the tsunami that could result.

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"We are not even close to being well enough prepared," said Wang.

That isn't going to change anytime soon. To retrofit a major building against earthquakes can cost millions of dollars, and, as the Japan tragedy illustrated, offers no guarantees. The cost of retrofitting every building in Portland alone would run in the tens of billions of dollars.

Spending that sort of money is an extremely tall order even when the economy is doing well, and when states and the federal government are suffering serious budgetary woes, as they are today, it's nearly unimaginable.

Consider: Even in San Francisco, where building codes are more stringent and a 6.9 magnitude quake caused widespread devastation more than 20 years ago, more than 17,000 structures remain unprotected today.

In light of the economic realities, officials  are focusing on education and creating safe zones. There have been exceptions, such as an effort in Portland to retrofit schools, but it's a deliberate process at best: It's more than a decade until Oregon law mandates that public safety buildings be retrofitted, and an a program to retrofit all the state's schools is not scheduled for completion until 2032.

"We know that we live in earthquake country," said John Schelling, Earthquake and Tsunami Program Manager for Washington State Emergency Management. "We've been very proactive when it comes to trying to prepare our vulnerable coastal communities for this type of a threat."

That largely hasn't meant building sea walls and reinforcing buildings, however. Project Safe Haven, for example, is a "vertical evacuation" program to make sure there is safe space for coastal residents to get to in the event of a tsunami. One focus of the effort is to create artificial high ground where residents can go in the event a tsunami, through controlled burns to create safe areas and the erection of reinforced buildings. 

Yet there is little money to implement the program, according to Schelling. And the meager money that goes to Washington State as part of the National Earthquake Hazard Reduction program - about $100,000 per year - is now projected to be cut in half, he said.

In Oregon, Maiden said, much of the focus has also been on education. Yet the hundreds of thousands of dollars that fund the education effort each year, which comes via a short-term term grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, is now threatened. The budget passed by the Republican-led House earlier this year cut funding for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration by 21 percent and the U.S. Geological Survey by $27 million; lawmakers are now working on a compromise budget, and both sides agree some cuts to the overall budget are necessary.

If there's a silver lining in the tragedy in Japan, domestic earthquake experts say, it's the opportunity to focus public attention on the risk faced at home. The disaster could boost efforts to build a tsunami-proof structure in Oregon's Cannon Beach, for example -- one that would be the first of its kind in North America. If nothing else, experts say, the Japan tragedy could prompt residents take a moment to consider that they are not immune from the same sort of devastation being felt on the other side of the ocean.

"We have a tremendous threat," Wang said. "The Japan earthquake is a tragic reminder of what the Pacific Northwest will one day experience. There's no getting out of it."

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[avigil2]

As someone who lives in the Pacific NW, I can tell you that we certainly are not ready for a major earthquake. Anything over a 7.0 will devastate Portland and Seattle and all of the other major towns in and around those areas.

[SandmanUSMC]

It would seem that smaller reactor designs would be easier to isolate and shut down. Also, in the event of a lean the impact would be reduced as smaller reactors produce less radiation. Such ideas should be considered for cities that are near fault lines.

Has the nuclear industry considered establishing such a concept as a new safety standard? Why do current reactors need to be so big?

[Jim1900]

If the right-wingers had spent the money on infrastructure instead of invading the wrong country, we would be a lot more secure today.

[jschmidt27]

If the left wingers had not escalated the misuse of social security, had not decided that everyone should be unionized( ala California, Oregon) , had not decided that healthcare bill should be passed setting up our bankruptcy, had not decided that the so called stimulus should be spent proping up unions instead of rebuilding infrastructe (only 9% went to that), than maybe we would have had money to actual take care of the infrastructure.

[enlightenu]

right, all that stuff costs a billion a day

[Overruled1]

I can't believe that in the years and decades since the Loma Prieta Earthquake,
the Bay Bridge is still being rebuilt.
During this time, China has rebuilt cities and highways more sophisticated than ours ever were or will be.
During this time we've seen earthquakes rock the entire planet with death dealt in large and small scales.
What bothers me even more is the cost of the new section being built.
We were told that it's cost would be almost the same as retrofitting the old one...that was a lie.
We are paying for in now in increased fares and without a new section yet being told it will cost more in the future.
I am sick of it.

[sjc_1]

Ever since Proposition 13 in California and Reagan, no one wants to pay any taxes. If there is no money, there is no progress, simple as that.

[Overruled1]

by sjc_1 March 15, 2011 1:46 PM EDT
Ever since Proposition 13 in California and Reagan, no one wants to pay any taxes. If there is no money, there is no progress, simple as that.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I don't agree. Reagan did tax while claiming not too.
and Prop 13 helped save many homeowners from exorbitant taxes they couldn't pay forcing them out of their homes.
The reason costs have gone up is because the corporations and the top 1%ers have lobbied to lower their taxes and reappraise main street, so the burden of payment is on the average home owner.

What we see happening today is a direct violation of the people of this country for the sake of the rich and elitists.

400 people control more wealth than 150,000,000 and that's the issue, we live in a plutocracy. Democratic government is a falsehood.

[samXXkiley]

coucou,
by nor-one March 15, 2011 11:18 AM EDT

""""When North Korea, Pakistan, India and Israel said they wanted to produce power for their people the US insisted they buy their reactors. They knew why they were so willing to pay the inflated US price, they wanted them to get the material to make bombs. The US knew it and sold them anyway. A bucks a buck!"""""
..............
es affaires sont les affaires!
le hic c'est que les USA mettent leurs armes de destructions, toujours aux mauvais endroit,
inventer des armes et cr?er des conflits dans le monde est le passe-temps favori de cette super-puissance appel?e "USA"
.........
Business is business!
the rub is that the U.S. put their weapons of destruction, always in the wrong place
invent weapons and create conflicts in the world is the hobby of that superpower called "USA"
"au revoir"

[sjc_1]

There was an earthquake fault discovered offshore from the Diablo Canyon reactor in California. If that shifts, there could be a wave that might knock out the cooling pumps there as well.

[USMC-Mom]

I don't know much about those things. I admit complete ignorance, but if that is the one I saw last night on the news sitting on a BEACH it needs to be closed down.

When I saw that on the news all I could think is what ignorant person builds that on a freaking beach.

[sjc_1]

Diablo Canyon is on a beach below a cliff, the water has no where to go but the reactors. They put them on the coast to get cooling water, which also makes them vulnerable to waves created by an earthquake.

[daffy64]

I wonder how many people will make "Godzilla" jokes when thousands of people die in California?

Harrrrr dee harrrrrrr harrrrrrrrrrrrr.

Oops. Sorry. It's only funny when "foreigners" are dying.

[HiTor15]

THE ONLY SAFETY NET WE HAVE HERE IS LUCK...THAT'S IT...IF IT HAPPENS IT WILL DEVASTATE ENTIRE CITIES HERE BUT IS ANYONE GOING TO REALLY CARE "OFFICIALLY"? NO. THE ATTITUDE HERE IS TOO CORRUPT TO AMOUNT TO ANYTHING EVER BEING DONE...THE WAY WALL STREET SEES SUCH THINGS IS LIKE THIS...WAVE DESTROYS WEST COAST...GOOD, WE CAN REBUILD, GOOD FOR GDP...THAT'S IT.

[nor-one]

If all we want from our nuclear reactors is electric power, why are we still building and selling to our "friends" these time bombs?? The CANDU reactors use un-enriched uranium and when they shut down they are immediately cold. No bomb threat! If you think this is new science, the first one went on line in 1947, and it never shut down until 1992! The only thing you get from the US reactors is bomb making material, like there's a shortage of that around the world. Thank you military complex. When North Korea, Pakistan, India and Israel said they wanted to produce power for their people the US insisted they buy their reactors. They knew why they were so willing to pay the inflated US price, they wanted them to get the material to make bombs. The US knew it and sold them anyway. A bucks a buck!

[Dont_Tread_on_me]

The current administration cannot be expected to come off the golf course or disturb his bracket selection. Otherwise, we might see some leadership.
Just a thought, how about starting some earthquake preparedness, might create a few jobs?

[djtejas]

Seriously?....we have been deteriorating for the last 50 years and you are gonna make a political statement against the current administration that has been in office for 2 years.
This kind of attitude is why our country is in such a mess...

[enlightenu]

"Just a thought, how about starting some earthquake preparedness, might create a few jobs?"

Just something else for the GOP to complain about and cut.