Solar storm worry: Pondering the "big one"

NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory shows a stunning prominence associated with a Sept. 8, 2010 solar flare. / NASA/SDO

The sun let loose its most powerful eruption in more than four years Monday night (Feb. 14), disrupting radio communications in China and generating concern around the world. But it could have been a lot worse, experts say.

Despite its strength, Monday's solar storm was a baby compared to several previous blasts, and it provides just a hint of what the sun is capable of. A true monster storm has the potential to wreak havoc on a global scale, knocking out communications systems, endangering satellites and astronauts and causing perhaps trillions of dollars in damages.

The sun's activity cycle is ramping up, so more storms will likely be coming our way over the next few years. The sun has grown more active over the last several months after rousing from a quiet period in its 11-year weather cycle last year.

That's not to say the big one is imminent, experts say -- but you never can tell. And analysts warn that with humanity more dependent than ever on the high-tech equipment that can be affected by a solar storm, the stakes are higher than in the past.

"Even if this is a really lackluster solar cycle -- as it looks like it's shaping up to be -- that doesn't mean you can't have a real bell-ringing event," said Joe Gurman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center, project scientist for the agency's sun-studying STEREO spacecraft.

Roots of Solar Storms

Solar storm events come in several different flavors.

Solar flares are intense bursts of radiation that send waves of photons streaming toward Earth. The scale measuring their strength has three general categories - Class C, Class M and Class X - with Class X flares being the most powerful.

Monday's Valentine's Day solar flare registered a Class X2.2 on that scale.

Gallery: The sun as you've never seen it

Other storms, known as coronal mass ejections (CMEs), are large clouds of plasma and magnetic field that erupt from the sun's surface, sending lots of particles our way.

Both flares and CMEs have the same root cause -- a disruption of the magnetic field in the sun's outer atmosphere. And both events can affect life here on Earth. Major flares, for example, can interfere with satellites, causing disruptions in GPS and high-frequency radio communications that can last from a few minutes to a few hours.

These impacts are felt almost immediately, since it only takes light about 8 minutes to travel from the sun to Earth.

"It's like the sun is a giant noise source," said Bob Rutledge, head of the forecast office at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Space Weather Prediction Center. "It can disrupt anything that depends on a link between the ground and satellites."

But the most severe damage comes from powerful CMEs. The particles from these outbursts take longer to reach us -- up to three days or so. But when they get here, their interaction with Earth's magnetic field can cause massive "geomagnetic storms," which have the potential to wreak long-lasting havoc on power and communications infrastructure around the globe.

"They can cause a lot of trouble," Rutledge told SPACE.com.

Last year, NASA launched its so-called Solar Shield project to serve as an early-warning system for serious space weather events.

Powerful Impacts Possible

Monday night's storm produced both a big solar flare and a CME. Wdespread satellite or communications disruption, however, is likely not in the cards.

"We don't expect this to cause any kind of lasting damage to our infrastructure," Rutledge said.

But Earth has been walloped by monster solar storms before. One of the most powerful hit us in 1859, a blast that Rutledge estimates may have been 30 times more powerful than Monday's event, though it's tough to put hard numbers on such comparisons.

The 1859 storm shorted out telegraph wires, causing fires in North America and Europe, and spawned spectacular auroras -- the light shows visible near Earth's poles -- bright enough to read by, according to some accounts.

If the 1859 storm occured these days, it would likely have devastating impacts, since our electrical and communications infrastructures are so much more developed. A recent report by the U.S National Academy of Sciences found that such a severe storm could cause up to $2 trillion in initial damages by crippling communications on Earth and fueling chaos around the world.

It might take up to 10 years for authorities to re-assert control and get everyting fixed, the report concluded. For comparison, Hurricane Katrina likely inflicted somewhere between $80 billion and $125 billion in damage.

The sun works on an 11-year activity cycle, and it's currently gaining strength. Forecasters now expect peak activity might occur in 2013 or 2014, Rutledge said, though nobody knows for sure.

So more flares and CMEs should be headed our way over the next several years. So far, the sun has been relatively quiescent during this cycle, so perhaps peak activity won't compare to the maxima of previous cycles, researchers said.

But a big, Earth-shaking blast could come screaming at us all the same, and researchers are monitoring the sun closely.

"This has been a remarkably quiet solar cycle," Gurman told SPACE.com. "But that doesn't mean there won't be a big event."

More Tech and Science Stories from Space.com

• Mega Solar Flare Fuels Earthly Disruption and Light Shows
• Video: The Sun Woke Up on Valentine's Day
• Amazing Sun Photos From Space

[RedWings_ninety_one]

Ever watch 2012? Its kind of like that.

[zen_fire]

I actually agree with both of Omegamaximus and ToolMangler1. Even though they seems to be on the opposite sides of the spectrum of opinions.

I really believe that we as a race should prepare better for this threat. However, there is only so much we can do. If things get really bad, the best option may be going back to small farming communities armed to there teeth. However, I don't know if I want to live in a World like that.

All I know is that I won't waste my present worrying to much about the present. The advice "Expect for better, prepare for the worse" is well said. Death is unavoidable anyway, in 2012 or whenever. Death is just part of life. For now I cultivate personal peace and happiness.

[zen_fire]

At first when I heard about the 2012 disaster theory, I was very skeptical. However, I started finding a lot of information about solar storms, their eleven years cycles, and the "big one" coming around 2012. Then, I started paying attention. The Mayas were expert astronomers. They could probably have made an accurate (or near accurate) calculation. Regardless, if it is going to happen in 2012 or not. This is something that we should seriously take in consideration.

Just read the article above. It is scary enough. An it is not not mystical psycho-gibberish. It's a U.S National Academy of Sciences report.

[Omegamaximus]

I couldn't agree with you more. I had a realy scary dream this morning in reguards to this same information. It's (the dream) is what lead me to search "solar flares" with all the talk about the recent activity in the news about this very subject. The fact that they talk about the 1859 incident is interesting to me because in 1859 I am sure the Ozone layer was much thicker and not so damaged. This is one of the factors that I am not sure the scientists are taking into affect. On the other hand one thing that does give me hope is that some of these CME's and solar flares can happen on the side of the sun opposite of Earth and we wouldn't be in the path of the CME and solar flare. None the less this is a very scary subject and like you said "This is something that we should SERIOUSLY take into consideration.